408
FXUS63 KMPX 151123
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible this morning and Monday afternoon.
  Damaging wind is the primary threat, followed by hail. The
  risk for tornadoes is low.

- Cooler and drier weather remains on track for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Current mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms
currently over eastern ND. This activity is traveling southeast with
an additional band of thunderstorms developing along a zone of
frontogenesis downstream. Using the HRRR, as it seems to have the
best handle on the current precip, this activity will reach western
MN around 4 AM and travel through southern MN by mid-morning. The
frontogenesis band of storms shouldn`t be overly strong, but one or
two supercells from the original cluster will follow in their wake.
The most likely track of the supercells looks to be a line from MOX
to BDH to MKT and the primary hazards associated with these storms
will be large hail and damaging winds. To the east, garden variety
thunderstorms and showers should spread across eastern MN and into
western WI. Thus, expect at least a wet morning for most of the
region before a dry period follows by early this afternoon. Once the
rain exits, temperatures should climb into the low to mid 80s.
However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible
later this afternoon, mainly in southeastern MN and west-central WI,
as a cold front sags south. CAMs and the Storm Prediction Center
aren`t too optimistic about severe weather with this round, but a
stray damaging wind gust or large hailstone can`t be ruled out. This
precip will exit to our southeast by this evening.

Following the cold front, a much milder air mass and strong surface
high pressure will settle over the Upper Midwest. This will set us
up for a very comfortable and dry stretch of weather Monday night
through at least Friday. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will
generally be in the 70s, as 80s don`t look to make a return until
next weekend. A few upper 40s could even occur in our rural areas
Wednesday night, highlighting the coolness of this mid-summer air
mass. Precipitation chances will remain very low until next weekend
when long-range forecast models start to show weak impulses within
the north-northwesterly upper-level flow passing through our region.
However, the subtleness of these features combined with their spread
of timing and placement between models provides low forecast
confidence of precip next weekend at this time. We are likely
heading into our first prolonged stretch of dry weather after today.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Ongoing convection across western Minnesota will impact
KRWF/KMKT/KSTC but less optimistic about strong convection
farther away from the best lift and instability. We will
maintain -SHRA for eastern TAF sites. For EAU, some IFR fog
will be addressed with a TEMPO. Low-end VFR cigs will likely
develop this afternoon as a cold frontal passage occurs with
another round of thunderstorms possible in southeast MN and
western WI. Confidence remains somewhat low so I allowed the
PROB30 to drop off for -TSRA at MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU for this
afternoon`s potential. Skies should clear this evening.
Southeasterly winds will turn more westerly as Monday
progresses, exceeding 10 knots by the afternoon. Northwesterly
winds will prevail this evening behind the cold front.

KMSP...Opted to just have -SHRA from 12-16Z as greater
confidence in morning thunderstorms is farther west. Did not
carry over the -TSRA PROB30 due to low confidence of additional
convection this afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, Wind NW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BPH