280
FXUS63 KMPX 151952
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers continue in southern MN this afternoon, drying
out a bit overnight before isolated showers are possible again
tomorrow.

- Quiet and pleasant the rest of the week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Showers are ongoing in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with
occasional strikes of lightning as a few updrafts have attempted to
get started, but are quickly being cut off due to northwesterly flow
aloft. Satellite shows the coldest cloud tops over a line from
roughly Marshall MN to Mankato, with convection expected to begin
shortly south of the MPX CWA in western Iowa where clear skies have
persisted for much of the day. We do not expect any strong storms
over us for the rest of today, with showers all we can expect as
they dwindle later in the day. The upper level low which has
produced much of the forcing for the last few days will continue to
slowly move eastwards, but not before one more day of potential
showers tomorrow. Northwesterly flow aloft on the southwest side of
the upper level low will coincide with just enough lingering
moisture to cause a few isolated showers tomorrow afternoon with
much of the CAM guidance suggesting isolated shower coverage. Right
now, we do not expect any storms with a lack of instability and
shear, with most of the area ending up dry.

Heading into the rest of the week, surface high pressure begins to
set up with northerly flow aloft on the western side of the
departing feature strong enough to keep skies clear and temperatures
relatively cool through the coming week. High temperatures should
settle in the 70s for most of the week and trend towards 80s by the
weekend as surface high pressure slides out and a broad surface low
meanders towards the area. Ensemble guidance shows quite a healthy
spread of precipitation potential beginning Friday and lasting
through next weekend with scattered showers and storms looking most
likely in western Minnesota on Saturday or Sunday. Confidence is
pretty low at this time in regards to stronger storms or major
impacts, so stay tuned to the forecast during the quiet weather week
as we approach next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This morning`s convection has ended and we are left with some
scattered light rain across the area. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail, but our Wisconsin sites may see brief
periods of MVFR cigs/vis with some additional afternoon showers.
Winds have been the other challenge for today with things being
slow to shift around to the W/NW. Based on surface obs, the
surface front is just getting into western Minnesota along the
North Dakota border. Touched up the timing of the wind shift for
all sites for everyone to be westerly/northwesterly by late this
afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will move in with light
northwesterly winds through the remainder of the period.

KMSP...Decided to keep a VCSH mention through this afternoon. Winds
are still expected to turn more westerly by 20z with northwest
winds by 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts.
FRI...VFR, Wind, S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Dye