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FXUS63 KMPX 172244
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
544 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures through next week. Chances for
  isolated showers & thunderstorms return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

High pressure remains in place over the Upper Midwest through
Friday, which will lead to more of the same dry weather with
seasonable temperatures. Lows tonight could drop into the 40s
across northwest WI with clear skies overnight & the low
centered overnight, which will likely also result in patchy fog
in valleys & other low-lying areas. High temperatures will
gradually warm from the mid-upper 70s Thursday to the upper
70s-low 80s Friday as the high slides off to the east & warmer
southerly flow returns. Northerly flow aloft through will
result in some wildfire smoke from Canada filtering into the
region, although this should remain high in the atmosphere for
the most part.

With high pressure off to the east & generally lower heights
aloft, chances for diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms
return this weekend & continue into early next week. No signal
for heavy rain or severe thunderstorms exists, with typically
summertime isolated thunderstorms & brief downpours possible
each afternoon. Temperatures and dew point values will
gradually rise into next week with daytime temperatures
generally in the mid-80s and muggier dewpoints in the 60s.

Looking ahead, models agree on a more organized shortwave moving
through the region sometime midweek, which could lead to a
period of more widespread showers and thunderstorms and heavier
rain. However, that looks to be it in terms of organized
thunderstorm chances through next week with long-term patterns
favoring seasonably drier weather into August.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Diurnal CU will dissipate this evening and redevelop Thursday
morning. Winds will remain light through the period.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind VRB 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff