377
FXUS63 KMPX 181135
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
635 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures through middle of next week. Chances
  for isolated showers & thunderstorms return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

It`s another quiet morning thanks to a 1020+ mb high pressure
overhead. High pressure will remain across Minnesota and Wisconsin
through Friday, which will lead to dry weather conditions with
seasonable temperatures and low humidity. This dry northerly flow
combined with calm winds has allowed radiative cooling to drop temps
into the upper 40s over western Wisconsin and mid 50s across central
Minnesota.  As we continue to cool down ahead of sunrise some patchy
fog is possible where temps have reached the dewpoints, but
widespread impacts to visibility are not expected. High temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s  today with plenty of sunshine and light
winds turning southerly this afternoon. Humidity won`t be an issue
with dew points in the 50s so an excellent day to get outdoors.

Friday through next Wednesday will feature high temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Friday remains comfortable with low RHs before
the high pressure shifts off to the east and lower heights aloft
settle over the central CONUS this weekend. This will open the door
for daily precip chances thanks to the diurnally-driven
thundershowers this weekend that`ll continue into middle of next
week. Each afternoon will feature 30-40 PoPs with no signal for
heavy rain or severe thunderstorms, but more typical summertime
isolated thunderstorms capable of brief downpours. Dew points will
raise into the 60s over the weekend and it`ll feel more like mid-
summer.

By mid-week, guidance trends hint at the potential for a more
organized shortwave moving through the Upper Midwest. This may
support a more organized and widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms for the end of the forecast period. However, sub-
seasonal guidance has been hinting that the second "half" of
meteorological summer would trend toward a pattern shift that
favors seasonably drier and warmer weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Diurnal mid-
level cumulus clouds likely by midday, then dissipating this
evening. Light/variable winds this morning will become
southerly this afternoon and remain there through tonight,
speeds under 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind N to NE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC