Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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685 FXUS63 KMPX 070523 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and early evening is expected to remain sub-severe. - Chances for daytime heating driven showers and storms continue for the next few days. Temperatures gradually warm throughout the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Current satellite imagery depicts a typical summer afternoon with plenty of cumulus clouds scattered across the region. As we continue to heat through the afternoon, the atmosphere will mix and isolated to scattered showers and storms will result. Some scattered showers are already present in southwestern Minnesota, but remain pulse-like due to a lack of deep layer shear. CAMs are showing a similar story, with scattered pop-up showers and storms through the early evening, particularly for western Minnesota. As a result of the pulse-like nature and lack of shear, severe storms are not expected with today`s activity. However, a few higher performing cells could produce small hail and/or up to an inch of rain. In all likelihood, most will get less than a quarter of an inch. After sundown, storms will transition to more shower-y in nature as a shortwave disturbance moves overhead. This could result in an additional few tenths of liquid, but nothing too impactful. Sunday will be similar to today, with isolated pop-up showers and storms possible in the afternoon. The biggest difference between today and tomorrow is location, with tomorrow`s rain chances favoring western Wisconsin. Temperatures will remain fairly steady through the early week, with highs around 80. Winds will also be steady from the west/northwest and light in magnitude. Diurnally driven showers remain possible Tuesday and Wednesday in western Wisconsin. Overall, a rather benign weather pattern will couple up with the light winds and seasonable temperatures giving way to a pleasant week weather-wise. The thermometer will trend upwards by late week as winds go southerly and the atmosphere heats up. Upper 80s and potentially low 90s are possible by the weekend. This aligns well with our climatologically warmest period of the year, with the high end of the normal temperature range reaching 84 degrees (for MSP) July 8th through 23rd. While climatological normal high temperatures will begin to go down on July 24th, the Climate Prediction Center forecast is favoring above normal temperatures July 12th through August 2nd. Ensembles support this trend for the end of the month, with the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC all having consecutive days in the 90s beginning mid-July. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 -RA is likely to begin the period from MKT to STC spreading eastwards over the first few hours. Visibility should remain above 4SM generally, with thunder limited to the southern end of the line which should stay clear of all sites with the exception of EAU if the storms stay together over the next few hours, which is not expected. A brief period of MVFR is possible as the showers move through, but generally low VFR vis/CIGS are expected. CIGS lift by the afternoon with another chance at isolated -SHRA after roughly 20z, however lower confidence than the last few days with only diurnal heating for forcing. KMSP...Left out any mention of -SHRA or -TSRA for the afternoon as confidence is too low to include even a prob30 for now. The better environment looks west of the Twin Cities, favoring RWF/AXN. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind W 5kts. TUE...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NW 5kts. WED...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NE 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PV AVIATION...TDH