735
FXUS63 KMPX 191124
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
624 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures with daily chances for isolated
  afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend through early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Very quiet across MN and western WI early this morning with
current temperatures ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s. Given
the current temperature profile against dew point depressions of
3 degrees or less, another morning of patchy fog is possible
for eastern MN and western WI before mixing out later this
morning. Aside from fog potential, NT Microphysics show a couple
bands of altostratus entering southwestern MN which is a result
of increasing moisture out ahead of low pressure system located
farther off to our west. Most of today looks dry under partly
cloudy skies with highs in the lower 80s although, diurnal
isolated showers and storms will increase from west to east this
afternoon. Precip Coverage is expected to broaden once the
aforementioned low reaches southwestern MN. Highest confidence
for rainfall will be areas south of the I-94 corridor during the
pre-dawn hours Saturday. Redevelopment is possible Saturday
afternoon across central MN as a result of diurnal surface
heating and remnant forcing from the previous passing low. QPF
through this period looks to remain on track with the previous
discussion advertising a couple of tenths up to a half inch of
rainfall expected.

Sunday through the rest of the forecast period looks to be rather
uniform. Diurnal chances for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon with PoPs ranging in the 20 to 40 percents except for Tues
and Wed where a shortwave out ahead of a ridging pattern provides a
better shot widespread precip. Temperatures will start near normal
and then gradually trend slightly above normal into the mid to
upper 80s by the end of the week as the ridging shifts
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Mid-level clouds will remain in place throughout this duration,
just a matter of coverage, which is expected to bounce between
SCT and BKN. No precipitation expected during this duration, but
some isolated SHRA/TSRA in western MN this evening through
tonight cannot be entirely ruled out. Winds will remain under
10kts from a prevailing southerly direction.

KMSP...Have kept the TAF dry as any precipitation is expected to
remain to the west of MSP throughout this duration. However,
going into Saturday afternoon and evening (as in, later TAFs),
precipitation need to be introduced depending on confidence.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chance afternoon TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance afternoon TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chance afternoon TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC