Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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588 FXUS63 KMPX 151722 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather possible this morning and Monday afternoon. Damaging wind is the primary threat, followed by hail. The risk for tornadoes is low. - Cooler and drier weather remains on track for the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Current mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern ND. This activity is traveling southeast with an additional band of thunderstorms developing along a zone of frontogenesis downstream. Using the HRRR, as it seems to have the best handle on the current precip, this activity will reach western MN around 4 AM and travel through southern MN by mid-morning. The frontogenesis band of storms shouldn`t be overly strong, but one or two supercells from the original cluster will follow in their wake. The most likely track of the supercells looks to be a line from MOX to BDH to MKT and the primary hazards associated with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. To the east, garden variety thunderstorms and showers should spread across eastern MN and into western WI. Thus, expect at least a wet morning for most of the region before a dry period follows by early this afternoon. Once the rain exits, temperatures should climb into the low to mid 80s. However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible later this afternoon, mainly in southeastern MN and west-central WI, as a cold front sags south. CAMs and the Storm Prediction Center aren`t too optimistic about severe weather with this round, but a stray damaging wind gust or large hailstone can`t be ruled out. This precip will exit to our southeast by this evening. Following the cold front, a much milder air mass and strong surface high pressure will settle over the Upper Midwest. This will set us up for a very comfortable and dry stretch of weather Monday night through at least Friday. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will generally be in the 70s, as 80s don`t look to make a return until next weekend. A few upper 40s could even occur in our rural areas Wednesday night, highlighting the coolness of this mid-summer air mass. Precipitation chances will remain very low until next weekend when long-range forecast models start to show weak impulses within the north-northwesterly upper-level flow passing through our region. However, the subtleness of these features combined with their spread of timing and placement between models provides low forecast confidence of precip next weekend at this time. We are likely heading into our first prolonged stretch of dry weather after today. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 This morning`s convection has ended and we are left with some scattered light rain across the area. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but our Wisconsin sites may see brief periods of MVFR cigs/vis with some additional afternoon showers. Winds have been the other challenge for today with things being slow to shift around to the W/NW. Based on surface obs, the surface front is just getting into western Minnesota along the North Dakota border. Touched up the timing of the wind shift for all sites for everyone to be westerly/northwesterly by late this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will move in with light northwesterly winds through the remainder of the period. KMSP...Decided to keep a VCSH mention through this afternoon. Winds are still expected to turn more westerly by 20z with northwest winds by 00z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts. THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts. FRI...VFR, Wind, S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...Dye