371
FXUS63 KMPX 152321
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
621 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers continue in southern MN this afternoon,
  drying out a bit overnight before isolated showers are
  possible again tomorrow.

- Quiet and pleasant the rest of the week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Showers are ongoing in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with
occasional strikes of lightning as a few updrafts have attempted to
get started, but are quickly being cut off due to northwesterly flow
aloft. Satellite shows the coldest cloud tops over a line from
roughly Marshall MN to Mankato, with convection expected to begin
shortly south of the MPX CWA in western Iowa where clear skies have
persisted for much of the day. We do not expect any strong storms
over us for the rest of today, with showers all we can expect as
they dwindle later in the day. The upper level low which has
produced much of the forcing for the last few days will continue to
slowly move eastwards, but not before one more day of potential
showers tomorrow. Northwesterly flow aloft on the southwest side of
the upper level low will coincide with just enough lingering
moisture to cause a few isolated showers tomorrow afternoon with
much of the CAM guidance suggesting isolated shower coverage. Right
now, we do not expect any storms with a lack of instability and
shear, with most of the area ending up dry.

Heading into the rest of the week, surface high pressure begins to
set up with northerly flow aloft on the western side of the
departing feature strong enough to keep skies clear and temperatures
relatively cool through the coming week. High temperatures should
settle in the 70s for most of the week and trend towards 80s by the
weekend as surface high pressure slides out and a broad surface low
meanders towards the area. Ensemble guidance shows quite a healthy
spread of precipitation potential beginning Friday and lasting
through next weekend with scattered showers and storms looking most
likely in western Minnesota on Saturday or Sunday. Confidence is
pretty low at this time in regards to stronger storms or major
impacts, so stay tuned to the forecast during the quiet weather week
as we approach next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Should be mostly VFR over the next day. There is a chance for
some thunderstorms this evening over western Wisconsin. Chances
are low such that even a PROB30 was not included in these TAFs.
Northwest wind as the front has been moving though. Diurnal
wind increase on Tuesday with some gusty afternoon winds.

KMSP... Some isolated thunderstorms remain possible, but are
more likely to be east of the terminal area over western
Wisconsin. So opted to leave any mention of thunder out of the
TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts.
FRI...VFR, Wind, S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...NDC