806
FXUS63 KMPX 071930
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for diurnally-driven showers and storms continue for the
  next few days.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the period with
  decent chances at the year`s first 90 at MSP next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Isolated thundershowers are present over northwest WI early this
afternoon ahead of an upper-level trough axis that continues to
plague the Upper Midwest. CAMs suggest additional isolated showers
and storms will be possible later this afternoon in western WI and
also western MN. With modest instability and poor bulk shear, any
thunderstorms should be short-lived, but perhaps a few isolated
instances of pea-size hail can be produced within the stronger
cores. The activity will slowly push east but should quickly die off
after sunset. Tonight`s lows are forecast in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

The forecast can basically be copy/pasted Monday thru Wednesday as
the aforementioned upper-level trough takes its time exiting to our
east. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with chances for isolated
afternoon/early evening showers and storms, mainly over eastern MN
and western WI. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
light winds. The trough looks to finally move far enough east
Thursday to effectively end precip chances through the end of the
week.

Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge that will have moved over the
western CONUS early this week should continue east of the Rockies
after Wednesday. NBM guidance favors our temperatures to gradually
trend upwards by next weekend as the low-level thermal ridging
advects east, propping heights aloft. A major heatwave is not
expected at this time but some highs in the low 90s seem like a good
possibility next weekend. Summer may be finally realizing that it is
actually summer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Winds remain fairly weak as they transition to the west.
Scattered diurnal showers and storms are expected again this
afternoon, but the area of impact will be farther east than
yesterday in east MN and west WI. The primary time period will
span roughly 22-03z, after which point anything left should
break up and weaken.

KMSP...Added PROB30 for scattered storms this afternoon into
evening. Models were fairly good at capturing diurnal convection
yesterday and today is a similar setup.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind W 5kts.
TUE...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NW 5kts.
WED...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...PV