104
FXUS63 KMPX 051150
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
650 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers continue this morning, with a morning break
  before further scattered showers and weak storms return this
  afternoon and evening.

- Diurnal showers and weak storms possible this weekend and into
  the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Our low pressure center is located in far eastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin this morning evidenced by the slow moving rotating
showers that have persisted over the past few hours. These slowly
rotating showers will continue to churn near the surface low through
sunrise as the low begins to push eastwards. The showers tonight
have largely remained just north of our coverage area towards
central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, covered by our neighboring
WFO Duluth, with the two main showers over our area affecting
portions of McLeod, Sibley, Dakota, and Scott counties. Isolated to
scattered showers are likely to continue throughout the day until
the system is fully out of the area, which looks to happen by later
this evening to early Saturday morning. Due to how scattered showers
are expected to be today versus yesterday, additional accumulations
resulting in 2 day totals above an inch will be locally isolated,
favoring the areas that have been seeing the rainfall overnight.
Outside of the showers this morning has been persistent fog as a
result of the weak winds under the surface low alongside lingering
moisture, with visibility dropping below 1/4 mile in spots favoring
western Wisconsin. Fog should also begin to dissipate as the surface
low tracks eastwards and winds strengthen just enough to mix us out.
High temperatures this afternoon in the mid 70s alongside lower
overall shower coverage should make for a nice day in many spots, as
long as you can avoid or tolerate the passing showers.

As the near-term system winds down, we do not truly see another
widespread synoptic scale event within the scope of the 7 day
forecast, with a diurnally driven pattern favoring isolated to
scattered showers and weak thunderstorms through the weekend and
into next week. Flow aloft stagnates as a trough spanning almost the
entire CONUS swings its apex south of the area, with weak upper
level flow as a result with a lack of significant shortwave energy
to help force stronger storms. Unlike the past few weeks, we also do
not see a strong low level jet influencing our pattern, with lower
overall moisture content to work with. Our main forcing will likely
be diurnal heating with a hint of shortwave perturbations, enough to
cause some nuisance showers and storms but not enough to produce any
significant wet signal or thunderstorms. Instability generally looks
meager with forecast soundings from the GFS peaking at around 1000-
1500 J/KG largely surface based with adiabatic lapse rates near the
surface becoming much less favorable aloft. Based on current
guidance, the best day to have a chance at more widespread showers
looks to be Monday as the upper level trough begins to occlude and
produces forcing that is a bit better compared to the weekend. After
Monday, our flow aloft turns northerly as a ridge builds over the
Rockies, setting up what looks to be a trend towards warmer weather
as we get into the middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered showers continue across eastern MN and northwest WI.
These could linger into the afternoon across western WI, so
introduced a prob30 at EAU later this morning. IFR cigs are
expanding across eastern MN, but some improvement is expected to
occur between 15-16Z while MVFR cigs prevail for a few hours
after that. More scattered showers and a few isolated storms are
expected this afternoon across western MN.

KMSP...IFR conditions now, but cigs should begin rising after
15Z. A couple showers just south of the terminal should continue
sinking south with dry conditions likely the rest of the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chance PM MVFR/SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Borghoff