800
FXUS63 KMPX 052025
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
325 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
  evening, nothing strong to severe expected.

- Near normal temperatures, trending warmer, with diurnal
  showers and thunderstorms over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Rest of Today...The low that drove yesterday`s rain and storms
is now spinning over Wisconsin. With us on the back side of this
low we will continue to see some synoptic lift for the
remainder of today. We have been able to build some instability
and steeper lapse rates with diurnal heating today. This should
be enough to see continued isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms. As diurnal heating falls off later this evening
into tonight this activity will dissipate. With weak shear none
of these storms are likely to be strong to severe. Lapse rates
look best across western Minnesota near and along the Buffalo
Ridge. This is also where the CAMs have the strongest
development. If there is a chance for an isolated stronger
storm with some sub-severe hail it would be out here. Current
radar also agrees with this showing the continued activity in
the area versus the more spurious nature of the rain farther
east.

Saturday and Sunday... This weekend will see another round of
forcing move into the Upper Midwest. In the later part of
Saturday into Sunday we should see PVA from a shortwave and
upper low tracking across the Upper Midwest. With moisture
remaining near average over this period we are not expecting a
heavy rain event like we often saw over the past few weeks. This
will more likely we a diurnally driven event rather than our
more strongly forced events that caused the more widespread
rain. This will see instability build through the day and once
there is enough instability we will be able to make use of the
previously mentioned lift and average moisture to get shower and
storm formation. Shear looks to be lacking such that organized
convection looks unlikely. This weak shear also means what
storms do form will likely be airmass thunderstorms that are
more pulse convection rather than long lived storms. So end
results isolated to scattered showers and storms with little
chance for wind/hail/tornado and won`t be long lived enough or
have the rain rates required for a flood risk. Temperature wise
no strong advection signal so temperatures should trend near to
slightly below normal with highs near 80. More likely on the
below side due to cloud cover and rain chances.

Next week... Multiple smaller waves track across the Upper
Midwest over the next week. This will allow for continued
chances for more diurnal convection. Temperatures within
ensemble members do trend upwards as we go deeper into next
week. Overall we do not have as wet of a signal with lower and
more localized rain chances, as well as a warmer signal. This
will be a change from the recent cooler and wetter weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Cigs have gradually lifted during this morning, but some MVFR is
still expected at MSP, MKT, and EAU into this afternoon before
VFR prevails everywhere into Saturday morning. Light rain
showers are also possible in two areas: 1. Near EAU close to the
surface low and 2. In western MN, where they will be aided by
diurnal heating. However, impacts should be minimal from this
activity. Some patchy fog is possible in western WI early
Saturday morning which could reduce visibilities to 3 miles.
Rain will begin to enter western MN late Saturday morning, with
some potential for -TSRA at AXN. Northerly winds under 10 knots
this afternoon will become calm/variable tonight and then light
and southwesterly Saturday morning.

KMSP...Some scattered clouds near 1500 feet are expected into
this afternoon but conditions should remain VFR. Have also
omitted any mention of -SHRA this afternoon as it should be
isolated and mainly to the west of MSP. Added a PROB30 for
Saturday afternoon for -TSRA arriving from the west.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind W 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG