781
AWUS01 KWNH 081016
FFGMPD
TXZ000-081615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0592
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
615 AM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Middle and Upper TX Coast into Eastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081015Z - 081615Z

SUMMARY...Hurricane Beryl makes landfall near Matagorda, TX and is
moving inland over southeast TX. Extremely heavy rainfall will
move northward this morning with areas of flash flooding likely.
This will include areas of considerable to severe urban flash
flooding with locally life-threatening impacts expected.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Beryl as of 10Z (5AM CDT) was positioned
near 28.8N 96.0W, or about 15 miles north of Matagorda, TX, and is
moving north at 12 mph. Dual-pol radar and GOES-E satellite
imagery show the eye of Hurricane Beryl crossing the middle TX and
now moving inland across southeast TX with intense inner
core/eyewall convection producing extremely heavy rainfall rates.

Very heavy rainfall associated with Beryl`s central convection
will lift steadily north through midday, and more areas of eastern
TX in general will come under the influence of heavier rainfall
rates and potentially some locally strong/organized convective
bands that may wrap around the eastern and northern flanks of the
storm. This will be connected to the very convergent and
moist/unstable low-level flow that will be advancing inland off
the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

A substantial pool of instability is situated around the northeast
quadrant of Beryl`s circulation with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500
J/kg noted, and the 00Z/06Z HREF guidance supports the gradual
development of some strong convective bands that will be capable
of training in a south to north fashion over areas of the upper TX
coast and inland areas of southeast and eastern TX.

Extreme rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour are expected with the
inner eyewall convection and any of these stronger and more
organized convective bands that set up over the next several hours
to the east of the center. Expectations are for additional
rainfall totals through midday of as much as 4 to 8 inches and
this is supported by the 00Z/06Z HREF guidance.

Numerous to widespread areas of flash flooding can be expected,
and this will include areas of considerable to severe urban flash
flooding with life-threatening impacts expected. Some of the major
metropolitan areas including the Houston/Galveston vicinity will
be at particular risk over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30859564 30799488 30459441 29709436 29189477
            28749557 28569599 28649647 29229674 30059672
            30549642