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Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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848 AWUS01 KWNH 081933 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-090130- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0595 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...northeast FL...southeast GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 081930Z - 090130Z Summary...Extreme rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr may result in localized totals of 5"+. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. Discussion...Deep convection is firing along the sea breeze circulation this afternoon over southeast GA and northeast FL, evident via GOES-East infrared imagery with impressively cold cloud tops of -80deg C. Given near record levels of tropospheric moisture content (precipitable water values of 2.3-2.6 inches) with very slow storm motions (850-300 mb mean wind of 5 kts or less), extreme rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr are being realized with the strongest updrafts. While effective bulk shear of less than 20 kts should generally prevent meaningful organization and limit storm longevity, a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) to the east is allowing for some upper-level divergence on the western periphery of a ~70 kt sub-tropical jet streak. This subtle feature (combined with the aforementioned tropical-like tropospheric moisture) could allow for some repeating and backbuilding of these impressive rates. This is also evidenced by HREF 40-km neighborhood exceedance probabilities of 30-50% for the 5" threshold, which is near or above the corresponding (6-hr) Flash Flood guidance (generally 4.0-5.0"). As a result, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible (with particular concern for low-lying, urbanized terrain). Churchill ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32198133 31748099 30898133 29838146 30218282 31088313