Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
072 FGUS63 KKRF 231439 ESPMOM LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1137 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2024 ******************************************************** ********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ********* ******************************************************** IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :MISSOURI R AT SOUTH SIOUX CITY NE SSCN1 30.0 33.0 36.0 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT DECATUR NE DCTN1 35.0 38.0 41.0 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT BLAIR NE 2E BLAN1 26.5 28.5 33.0 | <5 7 17 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT OMAHA NE OMHN1 27.0 32.0 40.0 | <5 12 21 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT PLATTSMOUTH NE 1E PTMN1 26.0 32.0 35.0 | <5 21 31 | <5 <5 9 | <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT NEBRASKA CITY NE NEBN1 18.0 23.0 27.0 | 6 27 41 | <5 <5 12 | <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT BROWNVILLE NE BRON1 34.0 38.5 43.0 | <5 23 38 | <5 6 21 | <5 <5 6 :MISSOURI R AT RULO NE RULN1 17.0 21.0 26.0 | <5 22 38 | <5 12 25 | <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT ST JOSEPH MO SJSM7 17.0 21.0 27.0 | 8 29 42 | <5 14 24 | <5 <5 9 :MISSOURI R AT ATCHISON KS NO.1 ATCK1 22.0 27.0 30.0 | <5 19 36 | <5 <5 12 | <5 <5 8 :MISSOURI R AT LEAVENWORTH KS LEVK1 20.0 24.0 30.0 | <5 14 22 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 6 :MISSOURI R AT PARKVILLE MO 5W PKVM7 25.0 28.0 35.0 | <5 11 23 | <5 <5 12 | <5 <5 6 :MISSOURI R AT KANSAS CITY MO KCDM7 32.0 35.0 49.0 | <5 6 13 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5 :MISSOURI R AT NAPOLEON MO NAPM7 17.0 25.0 30.0 | 38 42 56 | <5 11 16 | <5 <5 6 :MISSOURI R AT WAVERLY MO WVYM7 20.0 29.0 31.0 | 43 45 59 | 7 14 17 | <5 5 10 :MISSOURI R AT MIAMI MO MIAM7 18.0 28.0 29.0 | 52 50 64 | 7 14 18 | <5 6 12 :MISSOURI R AT GLASGOW MO GLZM7 25.0 27.0 32.0 | 29 41 56 | 19 36 45 | 7 16 26 :MISSOURI R AT BOONVILLE MO BOZM7 21.0 30.0 34.0 | 29 44 56 | <5 14 18 | <5 <5 5 :MISSOURI R AT JEFFERSON CITY MO JFFM7 23.0 25.0 30.0 | 17 29 36 | 12 21 28 | <5 12 18 :OSAGE R AT ST THOMAS MO STTM7 23.0 30.0 35.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :OSAGE R AT MARI-OSA CAMPGND MO MOAM7 19.0 22.0 25.0 | 14 26 26 | <5 13 12 | <5 9 9 :MISSOURI R AT CHAMOIS MO 1NE CMSM7 17.0 28.0 31.0 | 25 40 46 | <5 5 8 | <5 <5 5 :MISSOURI R AT HERMANN MO HRNM7 21.0 26.0 33.0 | 24 44 42 | 14 18 22 | <5 9 8 :MISSOURI R AT WASHINGTON MO WHGM7 20.0 28.0 31.0 | 16 30 39 | <5 9 9 | <5 <5 7 :MISSOURI R AT ST CHARLES MO 1E SCLM7 25.0 30.0 36.0 | 16 34 39 | 7 13 15 | <5 <5 7 LEGEND HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT) CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH .B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MISSOURI R SSCN1 13.0/ 13.1/ 13.2/ 15.9/ 15.5/ 17.5/ 20.4/ DCTN1 22.3/ 22.3/ 22.5/ 25.3/ 24.8/ 26.8/ 28.8/ BLAN1 16.3/ 16.3/ 16.3/ 18.8/ 18.7/ 19.6/ 21.0/ OMHN1 17.0/ 17.0/ 17.3/ 21.4/ 20.7/ 23.4/ 24.6/ PTMN1 18.0/ 18.1/ 18.7/ 22.4/ 21.9/ 23.9/ 24.5/ NEBN1 11.7/ 11.9/ 12.4/ 16.1/ 15.7/ 17.6/ 18.0/ BRON1 27.0/ 27.2/ 27.9/ 31.3/ 30.8/ 32.9/ 33.3/ RULN1 9.6/ 9.8/ 10.4/ 13.3/ 12.9/ 15.1/ 15.6/ SJSM7 9.5/ 9.6/ 10.6/ 14.6/ 13.7/ 16.1/ 18.8/ ATCK1 12.0/ 12.1/ 13.1/ 16.7/ 15.9/ 18.5/ 21.1/ LEVK1 7.0/ 7.0/ 8.3/ 11.9/ 11.4/ 14.3/ 17.6/ PKVM7 12.1/ 12.1/ 13.7/ 16.9/ 16.7/ 18.8/ 22.3/ KCDM7 12.5/ 13.5/ 15.0/ 23.5/ 22.8/ 27.5/ 28.8/ NAPM7 9.5/ 10.6/ 12.0/ 19.4/ 19.2/ 23.5/ 24.6/ WVYM7 13.5/ 14.3/ 15.7/ 24.0/ 22.8/ 27.2/ 29.1/ MIAM7 10.9/ 11.2/ 12.9/ 23.9/ 22.6/ 26.7/ 28.2/ GLZM7 14.8/ 15.0/ 17.1/ 27.0/ 26.8/ 31.5/ 32.5/ BOZM7 10.9/ 11.8/ 13.3/ 25.2/ 23.4/ 28.8/ 29.7/ JFFM7 9.4/ 10.9/ 12.2/ 22.0/ 20.4/ 27.1/ 28.9/ :OSAGE R STTM7 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.8/ 11.9/ 11.5/ 12.4/ 12.7/ MOAM7 5.8/ 6.7/ 7.8/ 17.1/ 14.9/ 20.0/ 21.6/ :MISSOURI R CMSM7 4.4/ 6.4/ 7.1/ 18.1/ 16.8/ 22.8/ 24.7/ HRNM7 8.8/ 10.5/ 11.2/ 21.7/ 20.2/ 26.9/ 30.8/ WHGM7 6.2/ 7.7/ 8.4/ 17.7/ 16.6/ 22.8/ 25.9/ SCLM7 13.5/ 14.8/ 15.7/ 23.8/ 22.7/ 28.1/ 31.7/ .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH .B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MISSOURI R SSCN1 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.7/ 9.9/ 10.1/ 9.8/ 9.5/ DCTN1 20.3/ 20.1/ 20.1/ 19.4/ 19.5/ 19.1/ 18.9/ BLAN1 13.9/ 13.7/ 13.2/ 12.4/ 12.5/ 12.2/ 12.0/ OMHN1 14.8/ 14.7/ 14.5/ 13.5/ 13.6/ 13.1/ 12.9/ PTMN1 16.5/ 16.4/ 15.6/ 14.9/ 15.0/ 14.8/ 14.5/ NEBN1 10.2/ 10.0/ 9.3/ 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.3/ 8.0/ BRON1 25.7/ 25.6/ 24.6/ 23.7/ 23.8/ 23.6/ 23.3/ RULN1 8.0/ 7.9/ 7.0/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 5.9/ SJSM7 7.9/ 7.6/ 7.3/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.5/ 6.3/ ATCK1 10.4/ 10.2/ 9.9/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.1/ 9.0/ LEVK1 5.2/ 4.9/ 4.6/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.8/ PKVM7 10.4/ 10.2/ 9.9/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.2/ 9.2/ KCDM7 10.9/ 10.6/ 10.4/ 9.9/ 10.0/ 9.7/ 9.7/ NAPM7 7.8/ 7.5/ 7.2/ 6.7/ 6.8/ 6.5/ 6.5/ WVYM7 11.8/ 11.6/ 11.2/ 10.7/ 10.8/ 10.6/ 10.5/ MIAM7 8.4/ 8.1/ 7.9/ 7.4/ 7.5/ 7.3/ 7.2/ GLZM7 12.6/ 12.3/ 12.1/ 11.5/ 11.5/ 11.3/ 11.3/ BOZM7 8.7/ 8.5/ 8.2/ 7.7/ 7.8/ 7.5/ 7.5/ JFFM7 7.2/ 7.0/ 6.6/ 5.9/ 6.0/ 5.7/ 5.6/ :OSAGE R STTM7 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ MOAM7 4.1/ 3.7/ 3.2/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.3/ :MISSOURI R CMSM7 2.1/ 1.8/ 0.9/ -0.1/ -0.1/ -0.5/ -0.5/ HRNM7 7.2/ 6.9/ 6.5/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 5.3/ 5.2/ WHGM7 4.7/ 4.5/ 4.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.0/ 2.9/ SCLM7 12.1/ 11.8/ 10.7/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.1/ 9.0/ .END $$