915
FXUS64 KMOB 131739
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Mostly VFR conditions across the area with scattered
MVFR ceilings near the coast. Isolated thunderstorms have
developed along a slowly advancing seabreeze mostly south of I-10.
Storms are expected to slowly develop inland this afternoon
leading to temporary reductions in visibilities and ceilings.
Winds are light out of the north becoming southerly this
afternoon behind the sea breeze. BB/03

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

An upper level ridge stretching southwest over the northern Gulf of
Mexico from the open Atlantic shifts north to over the northern Gulf
coast by Sunday evening. A surface ridge over the Gulf becomes
better organized, increasing moisture levels to over 2" forecast
area-wide by Sunday afternoon, well above seasonal norms of 1.7" to
1.85". Even with the increase in upper subsidence from the northward
advancing upper ridge, the increasing moisture levels will bring
increasing rain chances. The rain coverage increases from isolated
to scattered today to scattered to numerous on Sunday. Am still
expecting the upper subsidence to delay convection firing until the
afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise to above seasonal norms. A
few of these storms may become strong to marginally severe, with
MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg and DCapes in the 600-800J/kg
range in the guidance.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected along and
north of I-10, low to mid 90s south to the coast. Add in the high
moisture levels, Heat indices are expected to top out above above
heat advisory levels ( >= 108F ). Today have issued an advisory for
the southern third of the forecast area. Will likely need the same
for Sunday, possibly a bit further inland, but too early to issue at
this time. Not to forget, low temperatures tonight are expected to
drop to a bit above seasonal norms, low to mid 70s from the I-10
corridor north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast.

A Low Risk of rip currents is expected into the coming week, even as
the tidal range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason.
/16

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Upper level high pressure ridge continues over the area Sunday
night through Tuesday night. Wednesday through Friday a deepening
upper trough will develop over the eastern CONUS. Scattered to
locally numerous (at times) showers and storms will be possible
through early week, with the best chances associated with the sea
breeze circulation early each afternoon and spreading inland
somewhat during the late afternoon and early evening hours with
outflow boundaries becoming the primary focus. Late night and
early morning convection can be expected near the coast and over
the marine area just offshore. Available atmospheric moisture
remains high, and storms are not expected to move very fast after
developing, so locally heavy rainfall could be possible for some
locations. Daily rain chances will likely rise Wednesday through
Friday as the upper troughing develops and subtle shortwaves
periodically swing across the region around the base of the
trough. In addition, during the latter half of the period, surface
high pressure will weaken and slide off to the east of our area
and a weak frontal boundary will likely settle into the interior
portions of MS and AL. Heat issues will be the most impactful
concern during the period, especially through about Wednesday
before the upper ridging erodes. Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday
will likely climb into the mid and upper 90s across most of the
area, and combined with dewpoint temperatures well into the 70s,
we will likely be looking at afternoon heat indices that will be
be fairly widespread in the 108-110 degree range. Heat Advisory
products will likely be required each day, for at least portions
of the area, Monday through Wednesday. Increased PoPs and cloud
cover Thursday and Friday should limit heat indices below advisory
levels for those days, but it will still be hot with highs
generally in the lower 90s for most locations. Nighttime lows
through the period will range from the low to mid 70s inland to
the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. DS/12



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  94  76  94  76  94  76  94 /  20  60  10  50  10  50  20  60
Pensacola   77  92  79  93  79  92  78  92 /  20  60  10  50  20  50  30  60
Destin      79  91  81  92  80  92  80  91 /  10  50  10  50  20  50  30  60
Evergreen   73  96  73  96  73  95  73  94 /  10  50  10  60  20  50  20  60
Waynesboro  73  97  74  96  74  96  74  96 /  20  60  20  60  20  50  20  60
Camden      73  97  74  96  74  95  73  93 /  10  40  10  50  20  50  20  60
Crestview   73  96  74  96  75  95  74  94 /  20  60  10  60  20  60  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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