518
FXUS64 KMOB 081754
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will continue through most of the period with
scattered showers and storms developing across the area over the
next several hours. Temporary reductions in ceilings and
visibilities will be possible with any stronger activity.
Additional showers and storms will likely begin to develop along
southern portions of the area early Tuesday morning. Light
southerly winds return tonight with increasing southwesterly winds
expected during the day Tuesday. /14

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Most areas will likely stay dry today as we continue to sit
underneath subsidence aloft from Hurricane Beryl with at best a
few to scattered showers and storms late afternoon into early
evening. A plume of drier air advected into the forecast area
yesterday into the overnight period, and this should begin to
advect out by this afternoon. PWATs initially start in the 1.5 to
2 inch range, quickly increasing to the 2 to 2.25 inch range this
evening. A large plume of moisture moves into the area for Tuesday
in association with Beryl as it progresses northeast across the
ArkLaTex region. This will bring in PWATs close to 2.25 to 2.75
inches and likewise a substantial increase in rain and
thunderstorm chances.

Given the expectation for decreased convective coverage today it
will once again get hot with highs in the middle 90`s and heat index
values in the 105 to 110 degree range. Given this, have gone ahead
with another heat advisory for the whole area mid morning through
late afternoon for all of the forecast area. Tuesday should be
cooler with highs in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s owing to the
increased convection and cloud cover. At this time it does not
appear that a heat advisory will be needed Tuesday which will be a
nice change of pace with heat index values in the 100 to 105 range.
Overnight lows once again are expected to be in the lower to middle
70`s inland and upper 70`s to lower 80`s nearer the coast.

While the rip current risk remains moderate today, the combination
of another swell packet Tuesday along with increasing onshore winds
should facilitate strong rip currents along Alabama and Florida
Panhandle beaches. Given this, a high risk of rip currents will go
into effect Tuesday morning, lasting into the day Wednesday. MM/25



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  90  77  93  74  94  75  96 /  30  80  40  40  20  30  10  30
Pensacola   81  89  79  92  77  93  77  93 /  50  80  50  60  30  40  20  30
Destin      81  87  81  91  78  92  79  92 /  50  80  50  70  30  40  20  30
Evergreen   76  90  74  94  71  94  70  95 /  20  80  20  40  10  20  10  20
Waynesboro  76  92  72  94  71  95  71  97 /  20  80  20  20  10  20   0  20
Camden      76  91  74  92  70  93  69  95 /  20  80  20  20  10  20   0  20
Crestview   78  91  75  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  80  30  50  20  30  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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