133
FXUS64 KMOB 100055
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
755 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Mainly VFR conditions overnight with only isolated showers.
Showers and storms redevelop on Wednesday with brief reductions in
ceilings and visibilities. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and storms continue to spread across
the region this afternoon as deep layer southwesterly flow
continues to usher in rich moisture. This moisture combined with
plenty of instability has resulted in some efficient rain
producers. However, storm motions have been rather quick given a
slightly stronger mid level flow aloft. Shower and storm activity
is expected to linger into the early evening hours before
dissipating later tonight. Low temperatures overnight dip into the
lower and middle 70s inland with mainly upper 70s near the coast.

The remnants of Beryl, currently positioned over far northeastern
Arkansas, will continue lifting northeastward across the Ohio
Valley through Wednesday. As this system lifts, it will send a
surface front down into the area tonight with it stalling near the
coast on Wednesday. This won`t cool us off much but it will bring
drier air into far northern portions of the area. High PWATs will
remain in place along and south of the boundary so best rain
chances will be in southern portions of the area and especially
along the coast for Wednesday. Numerous showers and storms will
likely begin developing early in the morning with coverage
gradually diminishing in the evening hours. Similar to today,
expect heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding,
brief gusty winds, and frequent lightning as main concerns with
any stronger activity. Highs on Wednesday afternoon climb into the
upper 80s and lower 90s with heat index values maxing out around
100 degrees closer to the coast. If you`re heading down to the
beaches, there is a high risk of rip currents through Wednesday
night. /14

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Upper trough just to the west of our area will continue through
the period, with southwesterly flow persisting in the mid to upper
levels of the atmosphere. A weak surface trough extending from
the remnants of Beryl early Wednesday will drop down to the Gulf
coast and then remain generally stationary while gradually
dissipating through the early part of next week. Deep layer
moisture will remain across the portions of our area along and
south of this trough, with PWAT values still between 2.0 and 2.4
inches (mostly across central and southern portions of our
forecast area, as slightly drier air (PWATs 1.6-1.8) north of the
trough. With this, expect a generally diurnal summertime
convective scheme to continue. We expect a chance of showers and
thunderstorms (30-40% range) over portions of our forecast area
(mainly southern half) through the remainder of the week, with
afternoon PoPs slightly lower over the northern half of the
forecast area. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increase
slightly early next week (40-50% range) area-wide. As we said,
mainly a diurnal pattern with showers and storms most likely in
the afternoon hours with peak heating and boundary interactions
(land/sea breeze, outflow). Hot and humid conditions will be the
rule through the period, with high temperatures generally ranging
in the low to mid 90s through Friday, but potentially trending
toward the mid and upper 90s over the weekend and into the early
part of next week. May be again looking at the possibility of Heat
Advisory conditions early next week. Low temperatures will range
from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s closer to the coast.
DS/12 /22

MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Moderate southwesterly to westerly flow prevails through
Wednesday night. Small craft will need to exercise caution over
most of the marine zones tonight. Light westerly to southwesterly
winds return on Thursday and will generally persist through the
weekend. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  88  74  92  74  93  75  95 /  50  60  30  40  20  40  10  40
Pensacola   77  89  76  91  77  93  77  94 /  70  70  40  40  20  40  10  40
Destin      79  90  78  91  79  92  79  93 /  70  70  40  30  20  30  10  30
Evergreen   74  90  71  93  71  95  72  97 /  30  40   0  30  10  30   0  40
Waynesboro  72  91  71  94  71  96  73  97 /  20  20   0  20   0  20   0  30
Camden      72  90  69  93  70  95  72  96 /  20  20   0  20   0  20   0  30
Crestview   74  91  72  93  72  96  73  97 /  50  70  20  40  10  40  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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