471
FXUS64 KMOB 111125
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
625 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Local drops to
MVFR levels possible between 09z and 15z near the coast with
isolated shra/tsra possible. A seabreeze developing along the coast
in the afternoon will shift general northerly winds around 5 knots
to south to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots closer to the coast as it
moves inland.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 457 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

An upper level ridge stretches southwest over the Gulf of Mexico
from over the open Atlantic, with a mean surface ridge stretching
west over the Gulf. Upper level shortwave energy embedded in the
upper ridge develops a surface low off the Southeast Atlantic coast,
keeping the eastern half of the Southeast under northerly low level
flow, and pushing drier air south over the region. The southwest to
westerly flow around the surface ridge over the Gulf tries to move
moisture inland over the Southeast, creating a band of higher
moisture (precipitable h20 values above 2") over the northern Gulf
coast and open Gulf waters. Friday, a more southwest low level flow
over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western portions of the
Southeast will move moisture more inland. A seabreeze moving inland
from the coast each afternoon will help to shift moisture inland.
For the forecast area, the moisture pooling along and south of the
coast will keep the higher rain chances along and south of the
coast. A bit better moisture influx over western portions of the
forecast area will help showers and thunderstorms to develop further
inland than over areas east of the Tombigbee/Mobile Rivers. Am
expecting a seasonal diurnal shifting of convection developing over
and south over the coast overnight into the morning hours, then
developing inland during the afternoon and early evening.

Increasing upper subsidence over the forecast area will keep
temperatures at or above seasonal norms. Temperatures top out in the
low to mid 90s today. Mid to upper 90s are expected Friday over most
of the forecast area. Heat indices are expected to remain below Heat
Advisory criteria in the Near Term, topping out in the 100 to 106
degree range each day. Temperatures tonight are expected to bottom
out in the low 70s to mid 70s inland from the coast to mid to upper
70s along the coast.

A low risk of Rip currents is expected into the coming week, even as
the tidal range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason.
/16

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 457 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The forecast area will remain on the eastern periphery of a mid
level trough moving through the Ohio and TN Valleys Friday night
night with mid level ridging to our southeast. Mid and upper
level ridging will then begin to build over the region Saturday
and become fully established over the area by the early through
middle part of next week. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will
remain possible through the middle part of next week, with the
highest coverage in the afternoon and early evening hours. Daytime
heating, sea breeze interactions, and residual outflow boundaries
will be the primary factors for convective initiation. So
basically a typical summer time pattern. Temperatures through the
period will be seasonably warm, with highs each afternoon warming
into the mid and upper 90 inland and lower 90s along the coast.
Overnight lows falling into the low to mid 70s over our interior
counties to upper 70s to around 80 closer to and along the coast.
Excessive heat will become a concern towards the latter half of
the weekend and especially into the early part of next week, with
heat indices approaching 108-110 degrees each day. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 457 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A general westerly component to winds is expected through the
forecast, with a daytime onshore component, nighttime offshore
component developing each day. Magnitude is expected to remain
generally light. No impacts expected other than locally higher
winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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