844
FXUS64 KMOB 041856
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
156 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24
hours. Scattered to numerous shower and a few thunderstorms will
continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours,
but gradually diminish overnight. Redevelopment near the coast
late tonight and early Friday morning, the more numerous over
inland areas again on Friday afternoon. Localized reductions in
ceilings and visibility (mainly MVFR to IFR) near convection
through the period. A generally light south to southwest wind is
expected through the period, but occasionally more variable with
stronger gusts near showers and storms. DS/12

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A persistence forecast continues through Friday. Continued hot and
muggy conditions with scattered to numerous diurnal showers and
storms through Friday. Dangerous rip currents will become likely
along area beaches Friday and continue through the weekend. We will
also be monitoring for potential for wave runup, beach erosion, and
perhaps some flooding along vulnerable lower lying coastal locations
as long period swell associated with distant Hurricane Beryl arrives
along the northern Gulf coast beaches Friday morning into Friday
afternoon. These beach hazards will persist into the weekend. We
already have highlighted a HIGH Risk of rip currents along the AL
and northwest FL beaches beginning Friday, and we will be issuing a
Coastal Flood Advisory later today for the potential of some salt
water flooding due to wave run-up issues at some of our especially
problematic at vulnerable spots along our Gulf front beaches. While
coastal flooding in the general sense, due to above normal tides, is
not expected there could be some run-up issues that cause some
problems at a few of our more vulnerable areas, ie- the west end of
Dauphin Island and around the Fort Pickens area.

Otherwise, an upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to
stretch across the Deep South through Friday afternoon. Hot and very
humid conditions will persist across our forecast area underneath
this feature through the end of the week. Afternoon high
temperatures on Friday should again generally range between 90-95
degrees, with dewpoints holding in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
This will continue to result in maximum heat index readings between
105-110 degrees over much of our region again on Friday.  A Heat
Advisory remains in effect today until 7 pm and we plan on issuing
another heat Advisory for our entire forecast area on Friday with
this afternoon`s forecast package. A very moist airmass will remain
entrenched across our forecast area underneath the ridge axis
through Friday afternoon, with precipitable water values continuing
to average between 2-2.4 inches. Scattered to locally numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected. Lingering
convection this evening will end, but more showers and storms will
likely regenerate near the coast and over the Gulf late tonight, and
then become more numerous over inland areas again on Friday
afternoon (generally again in the 50 to 60 percent range). There is
some question as to coverage of precip on Friday as a weak surface
trough axis/boundary slips southward into interior portions of
southeast MS/southwest AL, and PoPs may turn out to need to be a
little higher, so we will monitor model trends on this. No severe
weather is anticipated, although the regular, isolated strong storm
can`t be ruled out. As has been the case over the past few days, the
storms will continue to be relatively slow movers as well, so
localized heavy rainfall and the potential for some minor localized
flooding will be present. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  92  78  93  76  93  77  92 /  20  70  40  70  20  60  30  70
Pensacola   79  91  78  93  77  92  79  92 /  20  60  30  70  30  60  40  70
Destin      81  90  80  92  80  91  80  91 /  10  60  30  70  30  60  40  70
Evergreen   74  93  74  93  73  94  73  92 /  20  80  40  70  20  50  20  70
Waynesboro  75  91  73  92  71  94  74  94 /  20  80  40  60  10  40  20  70
Camden      75  93  73  93  71  94  73  94 /  20  80  40  70  20  40  20  70
Crestview   75  95  75  94  74  94  74  94 /  10  70  30  70  20  60  30  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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