330
FXUS64 KMOB 120240
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
939 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated convection continues over interior portions of southeast
MS and into Washington County AL as of 930 PM. We added a small
POP (~15-20%) over these locations for the next couple of hours,
but activity should gradually diminish by around or before
midnight. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 724 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue across the region through Friday
afternoon. The exception will still be near isolated showers and
storms over portions of southeast MS and southwest AL early this
evening and again Friday afternoon. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Mostly dry conditions have persisted across the area this afternoon
with PWATs ranging from 1.5 inches well inland to around 1.8-2.0
inches along the immediate coast. Current radar imagery notes an
inland advancing sea-breeze and it is possible that we could see a
few isolated showers and storms develop over southeast Mississippi
or along southwest Alabama along this boundary late this afternoon
or early this evening. Any storms that develop should quickly
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening with dry
conditions expected overnight. Temperatures are currently sitting in
the upper 80s and lower 90s and will fall back into the 70s late
tonight.

A similar pattern is expected on Friday as upper level ridging
remains in place over northeastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
Moisture will gradually improve through the day as a surface trough
over the area weakens. The better moisture content will be in place
along southern portions of the area as well as over southeast
Mississippi and the open Gulf waters. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will likely begin developing in these areas and along the
sea-breeze Friday afternoon before gradually spreading inland
through the early evening. Temperatures will be hot with highs
topping out in the middle and upper 90s. Light winds will result
in a low risk of rip currents at all area beaches through Friday.
/14

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

To start the short term, a long-wave upper trough will be situated
from the OH to the Lower MS River Valley. This feature eases
eastward to over the Appalachians late in the weekend. Meanwhile,
an upper ridge holds over the deep south. Precipitable water
values range 1.90 to 2.20" and appears we will be in a typical
summertime convective mode with showers and storms scattered in
coverage during the afternoons as a weak surface pressure trough
lingers over the southeast. The sea-breeze boundary will also help
to focus ascent at time of sufficient instability within the
presence of a deeply moist environment. The PoPs are capped at a
30-50% range over the weekend as upper level ridge acts to limit
higher coverage. Severe weather risk is low, but localized storms
could be strong enough to produce brief wind gusts in excess of
40 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours.

Away from storms, which will provide temporary relief from the
summer heat, daytime highs range from the mid to upper 90`s. This
combined with a return to surface dewpoints well into the 70`s
suggest heat index values will be on the increase. Heat advisories
may be required especially Sunday with main focus area over the
southwest half of the local area, including the coastal zones.

A low risk of rip currents is forecast over the weekend. /10

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A diurnal, persistence type summer pattern carries into next week
with potential of scattered, to perhaps numerous mainly afternoon
showers and storms. Storms may linger into each evening before
dissipating. May see another front easing southward across the
Lower MS River Valley by Thursday which would aid in increased
coverage of storms.

In the temperature headlines, may very well be dealing with heat
advisory criteria (108-112) for large sections of the local area
each day next week. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Light winds will follow a mainly diurnal pattern through the
weekend with onshore flow during the day and offshore flow at
night. A light southwesterly to westerly flow takes hold early
next week. Therefore, no major impacts are expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  94  75  95  77  97  77  96 /  10  30  10  30  10  50  10  50
Pensacola   76  94  78  94  79  94  80  94 /  10  30  10  30  10  50  10  50
Destin      79  93  81  93  81  93  81  93 /  10  20  10  30  10  40  20  50
Evergreen   70  96  73  97  74  97  74  97 /  10  20   0  20  10  30  10  50
Waynesboro  72  97  73  98  74  99  75  97 /  10  20   0  30  10  40  10  40
Camden      71  96  73  97  74  98  75  97 /   0  10   0  10   0  30  10  40
Crestview   72  97  73  98  74  98  75  97 /  10  20   0  30  10  50  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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