243
FXUS64 KMOB 200755
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
255 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Our overall synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged
through the near term period, with upper troughing draped across the
south-central CONUS, and upper ridging building west across the Gulf
coast region from high pressure centered out over the Atlantic by
Sunday.  A surface front will remain situated across portions of the
Deep South through Sunday as well, generally extending from the
Tennessee Valley region southwest across parts of central and
northern Mississippi. While there will continue to be a fairly good
chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, it appears that
coverage should not be quite as widespread as the past several days
due to less weak shortwave energy aloft and the fact that slight
upper ridging will begin to poke into our area from the east. Still
expecting a mostly diurnal pattern, with showers and storms
diminishing across the entire area during the evening hours and then
re-firing near the coast and just offshore during the late night and
early morning hours. Shower and thunderstorm coverage on Sunday
should be similar to Saturday, starting off in the morning hours
near the coast and becoming a little more numerous with best
coverage over inland areas during the afternoon hours. As has been
the case over the past few days, showers and storms will be somewhat
"hit or miss" across the region both Saturday and Sunday, with
scattered to locally numerous coverage each day.  No one particular
location will be looking at a prolonged period of rainfall. Some
brief heavy rainfall could be possible in some locations though, and
a few of the storms could produce some strong gusty winds during the
late afternoon hours each day.

Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s, with locations that may see a little more rainfall only in the
mid 80s.  Lows Saturday night mainly in the lower to middle 70s over
interior locations, with upper 70s closer to the coast and even some
lower 80s at the beaches and along the barrier islands. DS/12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The unsettled weather pattern persists into at least the middle
of the week.

Ridging aloft over the western Atlantic maintains its grip over the
eastern Gulf and Southeast through the period. Meanwhile, a
shortwave dives into the Plains early in the week as it rounds the
base of a trough sliding across the Great Lakes region. The diffuse
shortwave lingers well to the west of our area as the ridge begins
to build back toward the Southeast in the middle to latter part of
the week. We maintain onshore flow aloft in this pattern as the
local area remains sandwiched between the ridge and general
troughiness to our northwest. Guidance is still highlighting the
potential for a subtle inverted trough to drift into the eastern
Gulf around the southern periphery of the ridge early next week with
another one potentially late in the week. We may see some additional
moisture advected into the region from the latter feature, if it
actually materializes, by late next weekend. Down at the surface,
the local area remains on the periphery of the western Atlantic
ridge with onshore flow expected throughout the week. Deep southerly
flow will continue to usher rich, Gulf moisture into the region with
PWATs of 2.0+ inches expected through at least Thursday. As the
ridge noses deeper into the Southeast on Friday and Saturday,
moisture levels should begin to drop a tad bit.

In general, expect the typical diurnal pattern in convection with
showers and storms flaring up along the coast/nearshore waters after
midnight and re-development each afternoon across inland
communities. The blended guidance for POPs was far too high
throughout the period, so we continued the trend of cutting down the
POPs significantly each afternoon to more reasonable values (albeit
still higher than what we traditionally see in the summer months).
As previously mentioned, ridging becomes more dominant late in the
week and into the early part of the weekend which equates to rain
chances dipping back toward what we normally see in the summer
months (i.e. scattered convection in the afternoon hours along the
sea breeze). Can`t rule out a few strong to potentially severe pulse-
type storms each afternoon with gusty winds and frequent lightning
being the main threats. That said, storms will be efficient
rainmakers, so the predominant threat will be nuisance/minor
flooding, especially in area where storms repeatedly move over the
same locations.

Temperatures continue to be tempered by the chance for rain and
increased cloud cover each day. Expect highs to be several degrees
below normal through at least mid-week. Heat indices remain well
below Advisory criteria through Friday. As the ridge nears the area
over the weekend, we may begin to creep up near Advisory criteria
again for a good chunk of the area.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week
for the Alabama beaches and through Tuesday for the Florida
panhandle beaches. The risk increases to MODERATE on Wednesday for
the Florida panhandle beaches. The rip current MOS probabilities
have continued the trend of a bump to MODERATE for the panhandle
beaches on both Wednesday and Thursday, which is why we opted to
increase the forecast to a MODERATE on Wednesday. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Locally higher winds and seas will remain a possibility near
thunderstorms over the weekend and into the early part of next
week. Conditions will also remain favorable for the formation of
waterspouts, mainly in the morning hours along possible land
breeze boundaries just offshore. Outside of the localized higher
winds and seas near showers and thunderstorms, no significant
marine impacts expected over the weekend and into the early part
of next week. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  75  89  73  89  74  89  74 /  70  50  80  50  70  40  70  40
Pensacola   88  77  89  77  89  78  90  77 /  70  50  70  50  60  40  60  50
Destin      89  79  89  79  90  79  90  79 /  70  60  70  50  60  40  60  40
Evergreen   89  72  88  71  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  70  40  70  30  70  30
Waynesboro  90  72  90  70  89  71  88  71 /  70  50  70  30  70  40  70  30
Camden      88  71  86  70  88  70  87  71 /  70  60  70  40  70  40  70  30
Crestview   89  73  90  72  91  73  92  73 /  70  50  80  40  60  30  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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