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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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411 FXUS64 KMOB 141737 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at the terminals. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible generally along and north of I-10; however, confidence is too low on timing and locations to warrant prevailing TSRA. Any thunderstorms in the area will dissipate by sunset leaving VFR conditions through the overnight period. /73 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 503 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An upper level ridge has moved over the northern Gulf coast, and is expected to weaken a bit into the coming week. A surface ridge over the Gulf has become better organized, increasing moisture levels to over 2" forecast area-wide, well above seasonal norms of 1.7" to 1.85". Even with the strong upper subsidence from the upper ridge, the increasing moisture levels will bring above seasonal rain chances. Guidance is advertising PoPs in the scattered to numerous range today and Monday. Am still expecting the upper subsidence to delay convection firing until the afternoon over land areas, allowing temperatures to rise to above seasonal norms. The current radar loop shows convection forming over the northern Gulf, and am expecting this to continue late tonight into Monday morning. With very good low level instability, weak wind shear and several boundaries showing on radar, waterspouts are a possiblity this morning. A few of the daytime storms may become strong to marginally severe this afternoon, with MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg and DCapes in the 600-800J/kg range in the guidance. Also, with the high moisture levels, the thunderstorms will be efficient rainers, with local ponding of water possible in poor drainage areas. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected along and north of I-10, low to mid 90s south to the coast. Add in the high moisture levels, heat indices are expected to top out above heat advisory levels ( >= 108F ). Today have issued an advisory for most of the forecast area except for the northeastern quarter of the forecast area. Will likely need the same for Monday, though a slight downtick in temperatures may shift the advisory area south to the southern half of the forecast area. Not to forget, low temperatures tonight are expected to drop to a bit above seasonal norms, low to mid 70s from the I-10 corridor north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents is expected into the coming week, even as the tidal range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason. /16 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 503 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Upper level high pressure ridge continues over the area Monday night through Tuesday night. The upper ridging weakens and gets shifted off to the east of our area Wednesday through Saturday as a deepening upper trough develops over the eastern CONUS. Scattered to locally numerous (at times) showers and storms will be possible Tuesday, then mostly numerous showers and storms expected Wednesday through Saturday. The diurnal convective pattern will continue with most of the activity being mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours for most of the area, but some coastal showers will be possible late nights and early morning hours as well. Daily rain chances will be highest Wednesday through Saturday as the upper troughing develops and subtle shortwaves periodically swing across the region along the base of the trough. In addition, during the latter half of the period, surface high pressure will weaken and slide off to the east of our area and a weak frontal boundary will likely settle into the interior portions of MS and AL, providing an additional low level focus in conjunction with the afternoon heating and the sea breeze circulation. Heat issues will likely continue to be the most impactful Tuesday and Wednesday, but could be influenced somewhat by clouds and precipitation. Still some areas could see afternoon heat indices upwards of 110 degrees each of those days, at least for a brief time. Heat Advisories will probably be required for at least portions of the forecast area. Daytime highs Tuesday and Wednesday will likely climb into the mid and upper 90s across most of the area. With the best rain chances coming in the Thursday through Saturday period, increased cloud cover should limit heat indices below Advisory levels for those days, but it will still be hot with highs generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s for most locations. Nighttime lows through the period will range from the low to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Depending on just how far the surface front mentioned earlier sags into our area, a few locations along and north of Highway 84 could potentially see overnight lows in the upper 60s Thursday night and Friday night. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 94 76 93 76 94 76 92 / 30 60 20 60 10 60 30 70 Pensacola 77 92 78 92 78 92 78 91 / 30 60 20 50 20 60 30 60 Destin 80 92 80 91 80 91 80 90 / 20 60 20 50 20 60 40 60 Evergreen 73 94 75 94 74 94 73 92 / 40 60 20 60 20 60 30 60 Waynesboro 73 95 75 96 74 97 73 94 / 50 60 10 50 10 60 20 70 Camden 73 95 75 95 75 94 73 92 / 40 60 20 60 20 60 30 60 Crestview 74 95 74 95 74 95 74 93 / 30 60 20 60 10 60 20 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059-060- 261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob