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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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963 FXUS64 KMOB 080931 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 430 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Most areas will likely stay dry today as we continue to sit underneath subsidence aloft from Hurricane Beryl with at best a few to scattered showers and storms late afternoon into early evening. A plume of drier air advected into the forecast area yesterday into the overnight period, and this should begin to advect out by this afternoon. PWATs initially start in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, quickly increasing to the 2 to 2.25 inch range this evening. A large plume of moisture moves into the area for Tuesday in association with Beryl as it progresses northeast across the ArkLaTex region. This will bring in PWATs close to 2.25 to 2.75 inches and likewise a substantial increase in rain and thunderstorm chances. Given the expectation for decreased convective coverage today it will once again get hot with highs in the middle 90`s and heat index values in the 105 to 110 degree range. Given this, have gone ahead with another heat advisory for the whole area mid morning through late afternoon for all of the forecast area. Tuesday should be cooler with highs in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s owing to the increased convection and cloud cover. At this time it does not appear that a heat advisory will be needed Tuesday which will be a nice change of pace with heat index values in the 100 to 105 range. Overnight lows once again are expected to be in the lower to middle 70`s inland and upper 70`s to lower 80`s nearer the coast. While the rip current risk remains moderate today, the combination of another swell packet Tuesday along with increasing onshore winds should facilitate strong rip currents along Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches. Given this, a high risk of rip currents will go into effect Tuesday morning, lasting into the day Wednesday. MM/25 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The remnants of Beryl will continue to lift northeastward across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions Tuesday night into Wednesday. A weak surface front will move into our forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night before becoming more of a surface trough axis across our region by Thursday. A plume of enhanced deep layer moisture with associated precipitable water values between 1.8 and 2.3 inches is forecast to become oriented across central and southern portions of our forecast area along and ahead of the boundary on Wednesday, so we will maintain a fairly good chance of showers and thunderstorms (40-50%) over the southern half of the CWA on Wednesday, with lower POPs (20-30%) across our northern zones. It is possible that POPs will need to be reduced over the northern part of our forecast area on Wednesday as a lower PWAT airmass advects in behind the frontal boundary. Weak ridging aloft is otherwise forecast to build over the north central Gulf Coast region during the middle to latter part of the week, before the ridge strengthens somewhat with a rise in heights Friday into next weekend. Convective coverage may become more isolated to scattered in nature on Thursday and Friday and mainly oriented along the surface trough axis/seabreeze near the coast. We have trended POP values between 20-30% coverage both days, with the slightly better chance of convection oriented near the coast. Precipitable water values may trend upward by the weekend despite the building ridge axis, so scattered convection looks to be a good bet with good heating and instability this weekend. Hot and humid conditions will be the rule each day through the extended forecast with high temperatures ranging in the lower to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday and potentially trending a bit higher in the mid to upper 90s away from the immediate coast Friday through the weekend. Heat index values look to stay below advisory criteria for the most part during the middle to latter part of the week. The latest forecast does have maximum heat index readings ranging between 102-107 degrees and locally over 108 degrees over a few spots by next weekend. /21 && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Southeasterly flow prevails today before becoming a moderate southwesterly to westerly flow Tuesday through mid-week. Hurricane Beryl is moving onshore the Texas coastline this morning and will continue to provide a long period swell through the rest of today across our marine waters. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 79 90 77 93 74 94 75 / 50 30 80 40 40 20 30 10 Pensacola 92 81 89 79 92 77 93 77 / 50 50 80 50 60 30 40 20 Destin 89 81 87 81 91 78 92 79 / 50 50 80 50 70 30 40 20 Evergreen 94 76 90 74 94 71 94 70 / 50 20 80 20 40 10 20 10 Waynesboro 96 76 92 72 94 71 95 71 / 50 20 80 20 20 10 20 0 Camden 95 76 91 74 92 70 93 69 / 50 20 80 20 20 10 20 0 Crestview 95 78 91 75 94 72 95 72 / 50 20 80 30 50 20 30 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob