Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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188 FXUS64 KMOB 032102 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 An upper level ridge will remain in place over the Southeastern US through Thursday. This will help to maintain the very hot conditions in the near term. Plenty of moisture layer will also continue to usher into the area thanks to southerly flow at the surface with PWATs ranging from 2-2.4 inches through the period. We`ve seen scattered showers and a few thunderstorms develop this afternoon across the area as a weak surface trough lingers. Storm motions have been rather slow given weak flow aloft which has resulted in a few localized spots picking up a quick 1-2+ inches of rain this afternoon. This activity should dissipate through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures are not at bad as they were yesterday (currently upper 80s and lower 90s), but that doesn`t mean it`s not hot and humid out there. Dew points are generally in the mid and upper 70s, but there are currently a few areas where observations are reporting dew points around 80 degrees. The hot temperatures and high humidity has caused heat index values to rise into the 105-110 degree range, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7pm this evening for all areas given these conditions. Warm and muggy conditions will carry into tonight with low temperatures ranging from the middle 70s inland to around 80 degrees at the beaches. The hot and stormy conditions will persist into the Independence Day Holiday as the overall synoptic pattern remains the same. Rain chances will likely begin to increase along the coast Thursday morning before spreading inland through the afternoon. Coverage overall should remain scattered to locally numerous at times. A few storms storms could also produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Similar to today, it will be hot and humid outside of any convection with heat index values expected to reach into the 105-110 degree range. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across the entire area from 10am until 7pm Thursday. The rip current risk remains low in the near term. However, it will begin to ramp up later this week as long period swell reaches the northern Gulf. /14 && SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The upper-level ridge which has been over the Deep South through much of the week is expected to flatten and push to the east beginning Saturday and into the weekend as an upper trough swings into the Great Lakes region. With the ridge becoming situated more over northeast Florida/southeast Georgia over the weekend, upper- level flow will become southerly to southwesterly across our local region. At the surface, a frontal boundary is still expected to move into portions of northern Alabama/Mississippi on Saturday, however, it should stall to the north of our CWA and then linger in place through early next week. Over our area, surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues to ridge back west into our area through the period. With this, we will continue to be looking at a mostly typical summer pattern, with the land/seabreeze circulation being the dominant surface features at play each day. Looking at rain chances, we will continue a typical diurnal pattern to convection through the period, with scattered showers and storms expected during the early morning hours (mainly along coastal counties and over the marine zones), followed by scattered to locally numerous showers and storms developing during the afternoon and early evening hours (mainly over inland areas). Some days will have more coverage than others, but at this time it appears that Friday and Saturday will be the wettest days of the period. The reason for this uptick is due to the approach of the aforementioned frontal boundary which will stall to our north, daytime heating and sea breeze interactions all working together for a somewhat active diurnal convective pattern. With the diurnal convective pattern mentioned above the overall temperature/heat index forecast is somewhat complicated. Areas that see a later start to convective initiation will likely see their highs reach the low to mid 90s. Dew points will also remain in the mid to upper 70s, which will lead to heat indices in the 105 to 112 degree range, ultimately resulting in the need for continued Heat Advisory issuances. However, if we see storms fire earlier than anticipated and become more widespread in coverage, then it may be difficult for some areas to actually reach these values. Nighttime lows will be in the low to mid 70s over inland areas through the period, but mid to upper 70s nearer to the coast. A few locations very near the coast could see low temps remain in the lower 80s. All in all, this uncertainty is leading to a lower confidence temperature forecast, which will become further refined over the coming days. DS/12 && BEACH HAZARDS... Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place through the 4th of July holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This is due to the approach of a long period swell (on the order of 15-17 seconds) produced by Hurricane Beryl shoots north through the Yucatan Channel as the hurricane moves into the western Caribbean Sea and eventually into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This swell packet will likely reach the northern Gulf coast Friday morning. We currently have a MODERATE Risk of rip currents along our beaches for Friday then increasing to a HIGH Risk Friday night and continuing through the weekend. It is quite likely that we will upgrade the risk for Friday to a HIGH Risk as well. In addition to the rip current risk, this swell packet will likely lead to increasing surf conditions Friday through Sunday, with beach erosion problems and wave run-up issues at the beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into Saturday. Some salt water flooding of these areas is possible, and although tide levels are not expected to be significantly above normal along our coast, we will likely issue Coastal Flood Advisory sometime on Thursday to highlight this potential for the normally vulnerable areas. We still have some time to watch the trends, and make adjustments as need, but do want to note that late this week and over the weekend could potentially be very dangerous at the local beaches. Based on this weekend having lots of additional visitors to the area around the holiday, we want to continue to stress this danger potential. DS/12 && .MARINE... Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 No impacts are expected over the marine areas other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 91 76 92 76 92 75 93 / 20 60 10 60 30 60 20 50 Pensacola 79 91 78 91 78 92 77 92 / 20 50 10 50 30 70 30 50 Destin 80 91 80 91 80 91 80 91 / 20 50 10 50 30 60 30 50 Evergreen 74 94 75 94 74 92 73 94 / 20 50 10 70 30 60 20 50 Waynesboro 75 93 75 93 73 90 72 94 / 20 60 10 70 40 70 20 50 Camden 74 93 75 92 73 90 72 93 / 20 50 10 70 40 60 20 50 Crestview 74 95 75 95 75 95 74 95 / 10 50 10 50 20 60 20 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob