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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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070 FXUS64 KMOB 151849 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 149 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions will likely prevail through the afternoon with scattered storms developing mainly north of I-10. Storms will slowly drift southward towards I-10 dissipating after sunset near the coast. Winds will be light out of the south. Isolated to scattered storms will develop during the morning along the immediate coast. BB/03 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 An upper level ridge has moved over the northern Gulf coast, and is expected to weaken a bit into mid week. A surface ridge over the Gulf has become better organized, maintaining moisture levels over 2" forecast area-wide, well above seasonal norms of 1.7" to 1.85". Even with the strong upper subsidence from the upper ridge, the high moisture levels will bring above seasonal rain chances. Guidance is advertising PoPs in the scattered to numerous range today and Tuesday. Am still expecting the upper subsidence to delay convection firing until the afternoon over land areas, allowing temperatures to rise to above seasonal norms. The current radar loop shows boundaries forming over the northern Gulf, which should provide the focus for convection forming over the Gulf before sunrise this morning. With very good low level instability, weak wind shear and several boundaries showing on radar, waterspouts are a possiblity this morning. A few of the daytime storms may become strong to marginally severe this afternoon, with MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg and DCapes in the 600-800J/kg range in the guidance. Also, with the high moisture levels, the thunderstorms will be efficient rainers, with local ponding of water possible in poor drainage areas. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected along and north of I-10, low 90s to near 90 south to the coast. Add in the high moisture levels, heat indices are expected to top out above heat advisory levels ( >= 108F ). Today have issued an advisory for the entire forecast area. Will likely need another one on Tuesday. Not to forget, low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the mid to upper 70s. A Low Risk of rip currents is expected this week, even as the tidal range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason due to weak Gulf flow. /16 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Slight upper ridging will continue over the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday, but by late Wednesday an upper trough over the Northern Plains will amplify as it moves eastward, with a weak surface front dropping south into MS/AL area by early Thursday. This surface front lingers over the southeast CONUS through the weekend, while the deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS gradually flattens out to our north by the end of the weekend. With the surface boundary (as well as afternoon heating, seabreeze interactions, and outflow boundary interactions) acting as daily low level focuses combined with abundant low level moisture, we will be looking at scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. PoPs look to be highest Thursday and Friday, when numerous showers and storms are expected when the troughing aloft will be most pronounced. Continued hot through Thursday with regard to afternoon max temps (climbing into the low to mid 90s) and high dewpoints (in the mid 70s for most areas). This will likely continue to result in heat indices greater than 108 degrees over portions of the forecast area on Wednesday and possibly Thursday as well, and Heat Advisory products will again most likely be needed for at least portions of the forecast area on those two days. With the increased rain chances and surface frontal boundary dropping down into the Deep South and lingering Friday through Sunday, somewhat cooler daytime temperatures are expected, ranging from the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s. With this heat indices also lower to the mid and upper 90s for most locations, with a few locations around 100 degrees or just above, so it looks like we will get a break from the heat related products then. Overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s to around 80 coastal Tuesday and Wednesday nights, but cool somewhat Thursday night through Saturday night when they will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s up around the Highway 84 corridor to the mid 70s to near 80s closer to and along the coast. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 92 76 93 76 92 74 88 / 20 70 10 70 30 80 70 90 Pensacola 78 90 79 92 78 92 77 89 / 30 70 20 70 40 70 70 80 Destin 80 89 81 91 80 90 79 89 / 40 70 20 60 50 70 50 80 Evergreen 73 93 74 94 73 92 72 88 / 30 70 10 70 40 80 60 80 Waynesboro 74 94 75 97 74 92 71 87 / 20 60 10 60 30 90 60 90 Camden 73 93 74 95 73 91 70 86 / 30 70 20 70 40 80 60 80 Crestview 75 93 74 95 74 93 73 90 / 30 70 10 70 30 70 60 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob