060
FXUS64 KMOB 171107
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
607 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent across the region
through the next 24 hours. Occasional stratocumulus with bases at
MVFR thresholds may skirt the immediate coast through the morning
hours. We do expect the typical mainly scattered afternoon and
early evening convection to develop across the forecast area again
on Wednesday. CAMs have been fairly consistent with TSRA impacting
KMOB and KBFM between 19Z and 23Z Wednesday afternoon and have
opted to add TEMPO mention at both sites, while keeping VCTS at
KPNS and KJKA for now. Convection should diminish in coverage after
sunset. Light winds prevail over most areas tonight, becoming
S/SW 5-10 knots again on Wednesday. /21/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An upper level trough will continue to deepen over the Great Lakes
and Upper Midwestern states today and eventually into the Mid-
Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions late this afternoon into
tonight. Abundant deep layer moisture will remain in place across
our forecast area with precipitable water values generally averaging
between 1.8-2.2 inches, so the unsettled weather pattern will
persist across our region. We are already seeing a few showers and
thunderstorms developing along the MS/AL/western FL panhandle coast
as of 330 AM CDT and expect convection to remain confined near the
coast for the most part through around sunrise before scattered to
numerous showers and storms once again develop further inland across
the remainder of the area later this morning and especially through
this afternoon. The weakly sheared and moderately unstable
environment will continue to favor a few stronger pulse type storms
today, a few of which will be capable of producing strong and gusty
winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and locally heavy
rainfall. Scattered showers and storms may linger into the early to
mid evening hours before diminishing in coverage late.

The upper level trough will continue to amplify over the eastern
CONUS into Thursday, with much of our region located along the base
of this feature. A surface front will also edge southward toward
northern portions of our forecast area by Thursday afternoon.
Precipitable water values will become further enhanced up to around
2.25" along the frontal zone, so we do expect increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms going into Thursday afternoon. We kept
POPs very high between 80-90 percent over most areas (70 percent
along the coast). Some storms could be slow moving and produce heavy
rainfall which could result in localized flooding of low lying areas
Thursday.

Otherwise, hot temperatures are expected again today with actual
highs reaching into the lower to mid 90s inland and around 90
degrees along the coast. High dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will
continue to promote maximum heat index values of 105-110 degrees
across much of southeast MS and southwest AL, as well as portions of
the western FL panhandle today, so we will leave the Heat Advisory
configuration intact from 10 AM to 7 PM today. Increased cloud cover
and convective coverage may promote slightly cooler temperatures on
Thursday, but maximum readings still look to reach around 90 to the
lower 90s over most areas prior to convective development. Heat
indices generally average just below advisory criteria on Thursday,
generally between 102-107 and given the higher rain chances during
the afternoon, we may be able to avoid advisory issuance, but will
let today`s day shift take another look. The rip current risk
remains low for the next several days. /21

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Guidance continues to advertise an upper ridge stretching west over
the northeastern Gulf coast, with a deep upper trough over the
Mississippi River. A surface ridge over the northern Gulf becomes a
bit better organized through the weekend into the coming week. The
steady southerly flow keeps moisture levels high over the Southeast
(precipitable h20 levels above 2"). Through the weekend into the
coming week, it is pretty much the same story/different day. Showers
and thunderstorms initiate south of the northern Gulf coast in the
overnight hours into the hours after sunrise, then there is a short
lull in the morning with convection again firing over inland areas
of the Southeast. For the forecast area, a few storms may become
strong to marginally severe, though modest instability keeps the
risk low. There continues to be a risk of water issues, with the
scattered to numerous daytime coverage of efficient rainers. The
forecast area can handle more rain this time of the year due to the
summer time growth, but if a locality sees several training cells,
there may be ponding to low end flooding issues. Will need to
monitor.

With average upper level heights (and modest upper subsidence)
combined with daily rain, temperatures around to below seasonal are
expected through the weekend into the coming week. High temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through Tuesday, with low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80
south to the coast. Heat indices remain well below advisory
criteria, topping out in the 95 to 102 degree range each day.
/16

MARINE...

A light to occasionally moderate mainly southwesterly flow is
expected into Friday, becoming southerly late in the week. There is
a chance of thunderstorms each day with favorable conditions for
waterspouts in the mornings. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>053-059-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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