460
FXUS64 KMOB 202339
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions were noted across the area this evening. Showers
and storms will begin re-developing late tonight and become more
widespread through the morning and early afternoon hours on
Sunday. Local reductions to ceilings and visibilities along with
gusty winds will be possible around any convection. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail. Light and variable winds overnight become
light and southwesterly on Sunday. /14



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Light southwesterly flow aloft continues through the period as a
weak upper trough remains draped across the south central US.
Weak, embedded shortwaves will continue to move within this flow
aloft through the period. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains stalled across the Deep South. Additionally, a ridge axis
associated with high pressure over the western Atlantic continues
to extend into the Gulf of Mexico, helping to provide us with a
light and persistent onshore flow. The onshore flow, both aloft
and at the surface, will continue to allow for deep moisture
(PWATs greater than 2 inches) to advect into the local region.
This, combined with forcing from the nearby surface front and
shortwave energy aloft, will allow for numerous to occasionally
widespread showers and storms to develop across the local area
through the period. Convective coverage will likely follow a
typical diurnal pattern, with showers and storms developing along
coastal counties and offshore during the overnight and morning
hours, followed by coverage spreading inland by the afternoon, and
a brief lull in activity during the late afternoon/evening hours.
Overall, not expecting any severe weather with this activity due
to a lack of shear, although a few stronger storms capable of
producing gusty winds to around 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Some
storms may also produce heavy rainfall (given the deep moisture in
place) which could be capable of producing localized flooding
concerns, primarily over urban/poor drainage areas. Highs on
Sunday will only reach the mid to upper 80s due to the rainfall
and extensive cloud cover present. Lows tonight and tomorrow night
will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along
the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents continues through the
period. /96

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

We will remain in a stagnant, unsettled weather pattern through
the middle of next week as an upper trough extending from
southeast Canada to the southern Plains remains nearly stationary.
Guidance is still highlighting the potential for a subtle inverted
trough to drift into the eastern Gulf of Mexico around the
southern periphery of the ridge early next week with another one
potentially late in the week. Deep southerly flow will continue to
usher rich, Gulf moisture into the region with PWATs of 2.0+
inches expected through at least Thursday. We may see some
additional moisture advected into the region from the latter
feature, if it actually materializes, by late next weekend. Down
at the surface, the local area remains on the periphery of the
western Atlantic ridge with onshore flow expected throughout the
week. As the ridge noses deeper into the Southeast on Friday and
Saturday, moisture levels should begin to drop a tad bit.

The blended guidance for POPs was far too high throughout the
period, so we continued the trend of cutting down the POPs
significantly each day to more reasonable values (albeit still
higher than what we traditionally see in the summer months). As
previously mentioned, ridging becomes more dominant late in the
week and into the early part of the weekend which equates to rain
chances dipping back toward what we normally see in the summer
months (i.e. scattered convection in the afternoon hours along the
sea breeze). Can`t rule out a few strong to potentially severe
pulse-type storms each afternoon with gusty winds and frequent
lightning being the main threats. That said, storms will be
efficient rainmakers, so the predominant threat will be
nuisance/minor flooding, especially in area where storms
repeatedly move over the same locations.

Temperatures continue to be tempered by the chance for rain and
increased cloud cover each day. Expect highs to be several degrees
below normal through at least mid-week. Heat indices remain well
below Advisory criteria through Friday. As the ridge nears the area
over the weekend, we may begin to creep up near Advisory criteria
again for a good chunk of the area.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week
for the Alabama beaches and through Tuesday for the Florida
panhandle beaches. The risk increases to MODERATE on Wednesday for
the Florida panhandle beaches. The rip current MOS probabilities
have continued the trend of a bump to MODERATE for the panhandle
beaches on both Wednesday and Thursday, which is why we opted to
increase the forecast to a MODERATE on Wednesday. 07/mb /22

MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Locally higher winds and seas will remain a possibility near
thunderstorms through the rest of the weekend and into the early
part of next week. Conditions will also remain favorable for the
formation of waterspouts, mainly in the morning hours along
possible land breeze boundaries just offshore. Outside of storms,
no significant marine impacts expected over the weekend and into
the early part of next week as a light to occasionally moderate
onshore flow is expected to continue. DS/12 /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  88  74  89  74  88  73  87 /  60  70  50  70  40  70  40  80
Pensacola   77  88  76  89  78  89  76  87 /  60  80  50  70  30  60  40  80
Destin      78  88  79  89  79  90  78  89 /  70  80  40  70  20  60  40  70
Evergreen   73  88  72  89  71  90  71  87 /  60  80  40  70  30  70  30  80
Waynesboro  73  87  71  89  70  88  70  86 /  50  80  40  70  40  70  30  80
Camden      73  88  71  87  70  88  70  86 /  60  70  40  70  30  70  30  80
Crestview   74  89  73  91  73  92  73  90 /  50  70  40  70  20  60  30  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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