700
FXUS64 KMOB 181117
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
617 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions will continue into the day. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop around daybreak along the
immediate coastline. By mid-afternoon, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will move inland with the advancing
seabreeze and outflow boundaries. Temporary reductions in
visibilities and ceilings will be possible within the vicinity
of any storms. Winds will be light and variable tonight becoming
light out of the south-southwest tomorrow afternoon.
/03/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Another early start to the day with showers and storms ongoing at
this hour across parts of northwest Florida. As fast as the storms
flared up this morning, they`re slow to push out of the area and
thus flooding continues to be an issue through the pre-dawn hours
this morning. Several personal weather stations in southern Okaloosa
County, generally in the Cinco Bayou and Shalimar communities,
picked up a quick 3+ inches of rain this morning as the band of
storms trained over the same locations. The current Flash Flood
Warning for southern Okaloosa County is valid until 7am this morning
as rain continues to fall and exacerbate any ongoing flooding. The
rest of the area has stayed dry this morning and should remain dry
(especially inland counties) over the next several hours while we
reload for another round of storms again late this morning through
the afternoon and early evening hours.

The local area remains poised at the base of an upper level trough
swinging across the eastern portion of the CONUS through Friday. A
subtle shortwave slowly pivots through the base of the trough aloft
and moves overhead as we roll into Friday. A surface trough/weak
front sags into the area throughout the day today and remains draped
across the region (or just off the coast) through Friday. We
maintain a deep southerly flow overhead in this pattern, which
allows rich, Gulf moisture to continue to funnel into the area.
PWATs are currently analyzed at 2.0-2.1 inches along our coastal
counties as of 09z with the HREF ensemble precipitable water showing
generally 1.8-2.0 inches throughout the day today across our inland
counties. The HREF shows PWATs soaring to 2.0-2.2 (some isolated
spots of 2.2-2.4 inches) by Friday afternoon.

Rain chances remain highest along the coast throughout the morning
hours while transitioning inland by this afternoon. We maintain 75-
90% POPs across most of our inland counties this afternoon. As
previously mentioned, inland locations should remain dry through mid-
morning or so before storms begin to fire up around noon. Most of
the high-res guidance have the coverage of storms dying down with
the loss of daytime heating by mid-evening. We should see a break in
the convection overnight with higher coverage by Friday afternoon
across most of the area. While storms should be moving at a decent
clip in the afternoon hours, flooding looks to still be a concern as
storms will be efficient rain-makers and may repeatedly move over
the same locations. A few strong to potentially severe pulse storms
will be possible both days with gusty winds being the main concern
in any severe storms. That said, minor/nuisance flooding looks to be
the bigger concern both days.

Given the rainfall and cloud cover anticipated both today and
tomorrow, heat indices should stay several degrees below Heat
Advisory criteria.

Beach Note: Risk of rip currents remains LOW through Friday.

07/mb

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Guidance continues to advertise an upper ridge stretching west over
the northeastern Gulf coast, with a deep upper trough over the
Mississippi River. A surface ridge over the northern Gulf becomes a
bit better organized through the weekend into the coming week. The
steady onshore deep layer flow keeps moisture levels high over the
Southeast (precipitable h20 levels above 2"). Through the weekend
into the coming week, it is pretty much the same story/different
day. Showers and thunderstorms initiate south of the northern Gulf
coast in the overnight hours into the first few hours after sunrise.
From there, a short lull in the morning with convection again
increasing in coverage over inland areas of the Southeast is
expected. For the forecast area, a few storms may become strong to
marginally severe, though modest instability keeps the risk low.
There continues to be a risk of water issues, with the scattered to
numerous daytime coverage of efficient rainers. The forecast area
can handle more rain this time of the year due to the summer time
growth, but if a locality sees several training cells, there may be
ponding to low end flooding issues. Also, an extended period of rain
may help to keep soils more moist than usual, decreasing
absorption. Will need to monitor.

With average upper level heights (and modest upper subsidence)
combined with daily rain, temperatures around to below seasonal are
expected through the weekend into the coming week. High temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through Wednesday, with low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80
south to the coast. Heat indices remain well below advisory
criteria, topping out at or below 102 degrees each day.

In the coming week, guidance is advertising onshore flow becoming
more organized and a bit strong, bringing increasing swell to area
beaches and an increasing risk of Rip Currents Tuesday into mid
week.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 518 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms through
the weekend and into next week. Conditions are favorable for
waterspouts each morning. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  75  88  74  88  74  89  74 /  70  50  80  70 100  60 100  60
Pensacola   92  78  90  78  88  77  89  77 /  60  60  80  70 100  60  90  60
Destin      90  80  90  79  89  79  90  79 /  70  60  80  70  90  60  90  50
Evergreen   92  72  87  71  88  71  89  71 /  80  70  80  60 100  50 100  50
Waynesboro  94  70  87  70  88  71  89  70 /  90  80  90  70  90  50  90  40
Camden      93  70  85  70  86  70  88  69 /  80  70  80  70 100  50  90  40
Crestview   94  74  91  73  90  73  91  72 /  70  50  80  60 100  50 100  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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