263
FXUS64 KMOB 191747
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

MVFR to IFR ceiling and/or visibility persist across coastal
counties of AL/FL while interior areas remain MVFR to VFR flight
category early this afternoon. Expect additional rounds of
thunderstorms to move in by mid afternoon, potentially resulting
in temporary reductions in ceilings and visibility to MVFR/IFR
flight category once again. Prevailing VFR conditions should
return this evening into the overnight, however scattered showers
and storms could continue to locally reduce flight categories.
MM/25



&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Our synoptic pattern remains unchanged with upper troughing
draped across the northeastern to south-central CONUS while a
surface front remains situated across the deep south. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms from this morning gradually are
waning across coastal counties early this afternoon. Renewed
convection is expected inland this afternoon in addition to a more
pronounced batch of showers and storms associated with an upper
level shortwave that will move in to the forecast area from the
west into mid afternoon. Expect widespread showers and storms
through late afternoon and early evening, with potential for heavy
rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning in any storms. Any
areas that can receive training of showers and storms may see an
isolated chance for flash flooding of low lying and/or urban
areas. High temperatures will be held in check for much of the
forecast area today in the lower to middle 80`s.

Tonight will feature generally isolated to scattered showers and
storms, more focused towards the coast and marine waters. Similar
to today, expect a quick uptrend in convection during the late
overnight hours which should move onshore prior to daybreak across
coastal counties of AL/FL. While it appears the day Saturday will
be a stormy one, it shouldn`t be quite as widespread in terms of
coverage by the late morning into afternoon/evening hours without
the presence of a more pronounced shortwave like we had for
Friday. This should mean temperatures can warm a bit more into the
afternoon and the expectation is for highs to reach the middle to
upper 80`s for most spots. Friday night and Saturday night should
see lows bottom out in the lower to middle 70`s. A LOW risk of rip
currents remains in place through the weekend. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  88  74  89  74  89  74  89 /  70  80  60  80  50  80  50  80
Pensacola   77  89  78  89  77  90  78  90 /  70  80  60  80  50  70  40  70
Destin      80  89  80  89  79  90  79  90 /  60  70  60  70  50  70  40  70
Evergreen   71  88  72  89  70  89  71  90 /  50  80  50  80  40  80  30  70
Waynesboro  70  88  71  89  70  88  70  89 /  70  80  60  80  40  80  50  80
Camden      70  86  71  87  69  88  70  89 /  50  70  60  70  40  70  50  70
Crestview   72  89  73  91  73  91  73  92 /  60  80  50  80  30  80  30  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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