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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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221 FXUS64 KMOB 190718 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 218 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A surface front will continue to linger over the Deep South today and lift slightly north to the Tennessee Valley region on Saturday. This boundary will act as a low level focus for afternoon shower and storm activity over inland areas, but coastal showers and storms can be expected each night and early morning hours. Scattered convection along the coast will become more numerous and develop inland by mid to late morning and last through the afternoon and early evening hours today. Coastal and offshore showers and storms Friday night into early Saturday night will again develop inland during the day on Saturday. Best coverage of rain will be in the afternoon and early evening. Similar hazards can be expected with storms each day, featuring heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns in urban and low-lying areas due to a generally slow movement of storms, particularly in any locations that see notable rainfall on the previous day. Either day can`t rule out a stronger pulse-type storm or two with gusty winds. Highs Friday will be cooler than yesterday due to expected increased cloud cover, generally rising into the middle to upper 80s for all locations. Friday night temperatures once again dip to the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s nearer the coast. Saturday high temperatures very similar to Friday`s with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. DS/12 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The unsettled weather pattern continues into next week. The upper level ridge over the western Atlantic maintains its grip over the eastern Gulf and Southeast late in the weekend as a shortwave trough pivots into the Plains. The local area maintains southwesterly flow aloft through the work week as we remain sandwiched between the ridge to our east and general troughiness to our northwest. Some of the guidance indicates the possibility of a weak inverted trough drifting around the southern periphery of ridge and sliding into the eastern Gulf early in the week with another one potentially late in the week. Down at the surface, the local area remains on the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge with southerly surface winds expected all week. Deep southerly flow will continue to usher in rich, Gulf moisture with PWATs of 2+ inches expected throughout the period. In general, expect a typical diurnal pattern in convection with showers and storms flaring up along the coast/nearshore waters after midnight and re-development each afternoon across inland communities. The blended guidance for POPs was far too high throughout much of next week, so we cut the POPs down significantly each afternoon to more reasonable values (albeit still higher than what we traditionally see in the summer months). Can`t rule out strong to potentially severe pulse-type storms each afternoon (typical summertime storms) with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main threat. That said, the predominant threat in afternoon storms will be the potential for nuisance/minor flooding as storms will be efficient rainmakers, so any storms that train over the same locations could quickly overwhelm soils and lead to flooding. High temperatures and dewpoints will be tempered somewhat by the afternoon storms and cloud cover, which will also temper the heat indices and potential for heat stress. Heat indices look to stay below Advisory criteria throughout the period. Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week. The rip current MOS probabilities are hovering near MODERATE for the Florida panhandle peaches on Tuesday and Wednesday, but overall the probabilities have trended downward on recent runs. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Conditions will also remain favorable for waterspouts, mainly in the morning hours along possible land breeze boundaries just offshore, but a waterspout could be possible at just about any time of the day. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 86 75 88 74 89 74 89 74 / 60 70 80 60 80 50 80 50 Pensacola 88 77 89 78 89 77 90 78 / 70 70 80 60 80 50 70 40 Destin 89 80 89 80 89 79 90 79 / 80 60 70 60 70 50 70 40 Evergreen 86 71 88 72 89 70 89 71 / 60 50 80 50 80 40 80 30 Waynesboro 86 70 88 71 89 70 88 70 / 80 70 80 60 80 40 80 50 Camden 86 70 86 71 87 69 88 70 / 60 50 70 60 70 40 70 50 Crestview 89 72 89 73 91 73 91 73 / 70 60 80 50 80 30 80 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob