![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
678 FXUS64 KMOB 210500 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 General VFR conditions were noted across the area late this evening. Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over far northern portions of the forecast late this evening, and isolated to scattered convection will likely continue through the overnight hours. Additional showers and storms will begin redevelop near the coast very late tonight into early Sunday morning, then become more widespread across the area (especially inland areas) throughout the day. Local reductions to ceilings and visibilities along with gusty winds will be possible around any convection. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. Light and variable winds overnight become light, southwesterly on Sunday. DS/12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ ..New AVIATION... AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions were noted across the area this evening. Showers and storms will begin re-developing late tonight and become more widespread through the morning and early afternoon hours on Sunday. Local reductions to ceilings and visibilities along with gusty winds will be possible around any convection. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. Light and variable winds overnight become light and southwesterly on Sunday. /14 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday night) Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Light southwesterly flow aloft continues through the period as a weak upper trough remains draped across the south central US. Weak, embedded shortwaves will continue to move within this flow aloft through the period. At the surface, a frontal boundary remains stalled across the Deep South. Additionally, a ridge axis associated with high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to extend into the Gulf of Mexico, helping to provide us with a light and persistent onshore flow. The onshore flow, both aloft and at the surface, will continue to allow for deep moisture (PWATs greater than 2 inches) to advect into the local region. This, combined with forcing from the nearby surface front and shortwave energy aloft, will allow for numerous to occasionally widespread showers and storms to develop across the local area through the period. Convective coverage will likely follow a typical diurnal pattern, with showers and storms developing along coastal counties and offshore during the overnight and morning hours, followed by coverage spreading inland by the afternoon, and a brief lull in activity during the late afternoon/evening hours. Overall, not expecting any severe weather with this activity due to a lack of shear, although a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds to around 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Some storms may also produce heavy rainfall (given the deep moisture in place) which could be capable of producing localized flooding concerns, primarily over urban/poor drainage areas. Highs on Sunday will only reach the mid to upper 80s due to the rainfall and extensive cloud cover present. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents continues through the period. /96 LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 We will remain in a stagnant, unsettled weather pattern through the middle of next week as an upper trough extending from southeast Canada to the southern Plains remains nearly stationary. Guidance is still highlighting the potential for a subtle inverted trough to drift into the eastern Gulf of Mexico around the southern periphery of the ridge early next week with another one potentially late in the week. Deep southerly flow will continue to usher rich, Gulf moisture into the region with PWATs of 2.0+ inches expected through at least Thursday. We may see some additional moisture advected into the region from the latter feature, if it actually materializes, by late next weekend. Down at the surface, the local area remains on the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge with onshore flow expected throughout the week. As the ridge noses deeper into the Southeast on Friday and Saturday, moisture levels should begin to drop a tad bit. The blended guidance for POPs was far too high throughout the period, so we continued the trend of cutting down the POPs significantly each day to more reasonable values (albeit still higher than what we traditionally see in the summer months). As previously mentioned, ridging becomes more dominant late in the week and into the early part of the weekend which equates to rain chances dipping back toward what we normally see in the summer months (i.e. scattered convection in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze). Can`t rule out a few strong to potentially severe pulse-type storms each afternoon with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main threats. That said, storms will be efficient rainmakers, so the predominant threat will be nuisance/minor flooding, especially in area where storms repeatedly move over the same locations. Temperatures continue to be tempered by the chance for rain and increased cloud cover each day. Expect highs to be several degrees below normal through at least mid-week. Heat indices remain well below Advisory criteria through Friday. As the ridge nears the area over the weekend, we may begin to creep up near Advisory criteria again for a good chunk of the area. Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week for the Alabama beaches and through Tuesday for the Florida panhandle beaches. The risk increases to MODERATE on Wednesday for the Florida panhandle beaches. The rip current MOS probabilities have continued the trend of a bump to MODERATE for the panhandle beaches on both Wednesday and Thursday, which is why we opted to increase the forecast to a MODERATE on Wednesday. 07/mb /22 MARINE... Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Locally higher winds and seas will remain a possibility near thunderstorms through the rest of the weekend and into the early part of next week. Conditions will also remain favorable for the formation of waterspouts, mainly in the morning hours along possible land breeze boundaries just offshore. Outside of storms, no significant marine impacts expected over the weekend and into the early part of next week as a light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to continue. DS/12 /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 88 74 89 74 88 73 87 / 60 70 50 70 40 70 40 80 Pensacola 77 88 76 89 78 89 76 87 / 60 80 50 70 30 60 40 80 Destin 78 88 79 89 79 90 78 89 / 70 80 40 70 20 60 40 70 Evergreen 73 88 72 89 71 90 71 87 / 60 80 40 70 30 70 30 80 Waynesboro 73 87 71 89 70 88 70 86 / 50 80 40 70 40 70 30 80 Camden 73 88 71 87 70 88 70 86 / 60 70 40 70 30 70 30 80 Crestview 74 89 73 91 73 92 73 90 / 50 70 40 70 20 60 30 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob