Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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410 FXUS64 KMOB 162059 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 359 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 359 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Expect the isolated to scattered showers and storms to dissipate around mid-evening with loss of daytime heating, with convection becoming focused offshore over the marine waters by late tonight. Low temperatures tonight fall into the middle to upper 70s. The unsettled pattern continues on Wednesday as the base of an upper trough moves into the TN/Mid-MS Valley region. Plentiful deep layer moisture remains in place over our area, so the pattern will once again favor good convective chances over the region Wednesday afternoon. Weak shear and moderate instability suggests storms should again be more typical pulse-type summertime storms, with potential for brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. With the base of the upper trough nudging closer to the area Wednesday night, we do not expect the convection to dissipate during evening but continue through the overnight period. Hot and humid conditions can be expected prior to and outside of convective initiation. Highs in the mid 90s inland and around 90 to the lower 90s along the coast combined with dewpoints in the 70s will result in heat indices between 105-110 over much of the area on Wednesday. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is now in effect for the southern and western portions of our forecast area on Wednesday from 10am to 7pm. The risk of rip currents looks to remain low for the next several days. /22 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 359 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 An active stretch for showers and thunderstorms remains expected at least from late this week into the weekend. Upper troughing remains across the northeastern U.S. into the late week with some signs of an upper level low cutting off from the main trough across the central U.S. by the beginning of next week. Ridging should begin to nose back into the area early next week, perhaps tempering rain chances somewhat. In the meantime, with the aforementioned troughing, several shortwaves swing across the area Thursday through Sunday and likewise a surface cold front will stall and remain across the forecast area starting Thursday. This will serve as the focus for numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. With high PWATs remaining in the 2 to 2.25 inch range, storms should remain efficient rainfall producers. Training of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the course of several days could promote localized instances of flash flooding, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Temperatures will remain near or just below seasonable norms for this time of year owing to the increased cloud cover and rain chances. Highs generally will be in the middle to upper 80`s for most locations on the rainiest days Friday through Sunday, with upper 80`s to lower 90`s expected Thursday and again Monday into Tuesday. Overnight lows stay steady state in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s inland and middle to upper 70`s nearer the coast. A LOW risk of rip currents remains in place through the forecast period. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 359 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week as a light onshore flow prevails throughout the week. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 93 76 92 74 89 74 89 / 20 50 30 80 70 80 70 80 Pensacola 79 91 79 90 78 88 77 88 / 20 50 40 80 60 80 60 80 Destin 81 91 80 88 80 87 79 87 / 20 50 40 70 70 80 50 80 Evergreen 74 94 74 90 71 86 70 86 / 30 60 30 80 60 80 60 80 Waynesboro 74 96 75 92 70 87 70 88 / 30 50 30 80 70 80 60 80 Camden 74 95 74 91 70 86 70 87 / 20 60 40 80 70 80 50 80 Crestview 74 94 75 92 74 89 73 90 / 20 60 30 80 60 80 50 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ051>053- 059-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>204. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob