799
FXUS64 KMOB 171755
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent across the region
through the next 24 hours. The current convection will continue to
expand in coverage this afternoon to become scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. CAMs have been fairly consistent with
TSRA impacting KMOB and KBFM between 20z and 23z, so kept a 3
hour TEMPO group at both sites. Convection may stay just north of
KPNS, but as a precaution, added a 2 hour TEMPO group between 22z
and 24z. Local drops to low end MVFR/IFR levels with the stronger
storms, along with locally gusty winds should occur across the
entire region. KJKA should remain free of storms, but there could
be a stray shower. Convection should diminish in coverage after
sunset. Light winds will become S/SW 5-10 knots this afternoon
into early evening. /22

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An upper level trough will continue to deepen over the Great Lakes
and Upper Midwestern states today and eventually into the Mid-
Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions late this afternoon into
tonight. Abundant deep layer moisture will remain in place across
our forecast area with precipitable water values generally
averaging between 1.8-2.2 inches, so the unsettled weather pattern
will persist across our region. We are already seeing a few
showers and thunderstorms developing along the MS/AL/western FL
panhandle coast as of 330 AM CDT and expect convection to remain
confined near the coast for the most part through around sunrise
before scattered to numerous showers and storms once again develop
further inland across the remainder of the area later this
morning and especially through this afternoon. The weakly sheared
and moderately unstable environment will continue to favor a few
stronger pulse type storms today, a few of which will be capable
of producing strong and gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground
lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Scattered showers
and storms may linger into the early to mid evening hours before
diminishing in coverage late.

The upper level trough will continue to amplify over the eastern
CONUS into Thursday, with much of our region located along the
base of this feature. A surface front will also edge southward
toward northern portions of our forecast area by Thursday
afternoon. Precipitable water values will become further enhanced
up to around 2.25" along the frontal zone, so we do expect
increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms going into
Thursday afternoon. We kept POPs very high between 80-90 percent
over most areas (70 percent along the coast). Some storms could be
slow moving and produce heavy rainfall which could result in
localized flooding of low lying areas Thursday.

Otherwise, hot temperatures are expected again today with actual
highs reaching into the lower to mid 90s inland and around 90
degrees along the coast. High dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s
will continue to promote maximum heat index values of 105-110
degrees across much of southeast MS and southwest AL, as well as
portions of the western FL panhandle today, so we will leave the
Heat Advisory configuration intact from 10 AM to 7 PM today.
Increased cloud cover and convective coverage may promote slightly
cooler temperatures on Thursday, but maximum readings still look
to reach around 90 to the lower 90s over most areas prior to
convective development. Heat indices generally average just below
advisory criteria on Thursday, generally between 102-107 and given
the higher rain chances during the afternoon, we may be able to
avoid advisory issuance, but will let today`s day shift take
another look. The rip current risk remains low for the next
several days. /21

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Guidance continues to advertise an upper ridge stretching west
over the northeastern Gulf coast, with a deep upper trough over
the Mississippi River. A surface ridge over the northern Gulf
becomes a bit better organized through the weekend into the coming
week. The steady southerly flow keeps moisture levels high over
the Southeast (precipitable h20 levels above 2"). Through the
weekend into the coming week, it is pretty much the same
story/different day. Showers and thunderstorms initiate south of
the northern Gulf coast in the overnight hours into the hours
after sunrise, then there is a short lull in the morning with
convection again firing over inland areas of the Southeast. For
the forecast area, a few storms may become strong to marginally
severe, though modest instability keeps the risk low. There
continues to be a risk of water issues, with the scattered to
numerous daytime coverage of efficient rainers. The forecast area
can handle more rain this time of the year due to the summer time
growth, but if a locality sees several training cells, there may
be ponding to low end flooding issues. Will need to monitor.

With average upper level heights (and modest upper subsidence)
combined with daily rain, temperatures around to below seasonal
are expected through the weekend into the coming week. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through
Tuesday, with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s north of
I-10, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast. Heat indices remain
well below advisory criteria, topping out in the 95 to 102 degree
range each day. /16

&&

MARINE...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A light to occasionally moderate mainly southwesterly flow is
expected into Friday, becoming southerly late in the week. There
is a chance of thunderstorms each day with favorable conditions
for waterspouts in the mornings. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  92  74  88  74  89  74  89 /  30  80  70 100  60  90  50  90
Pensacola   78  91  77  87  77  89  77  89 /  30  70  70  90  70  90  60  90
Destin      80  90  79  88  79  89  79  89 /  30  80  70  90  70  90  50  90
Evergreen   73  92  72  87  71  89  71  88 /  30  90  70  90  60  90  40  90
Waynesboro  73  93  71  86  70  89  70  88 /  40  90  70  90  50  80  40  90
Camden      72  91  71  86  70  87  70  87 /  30  90  70  90  50  90  40  90
Crestview   74  93  73  89  73  91  72  92 /  30  80  60 100  60  90  40  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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