Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
471 FXUS64 KMOB 111125 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 625 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Local drops to MVFR levels possible between 09z and 15z near the coast with isolated shra/tsra possible. A seabreeze developing along the coast in the afternoon will shift general northerly winds around 5 knots to south to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots closer to the coast as it moves inland. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 457 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 An upper level ridge stretches southwest over the Gulf of Mexico from over the open Atlantic, with a mean surface ridge stretching west over the Gulf. Upper level shortwave energy embedded in the upper ridge develops a surface low off the Southeast Atlantic coast, keeping the eastern half of the Southeast under northerly low level flow, and pushing drier air south over the region. The southwest to westerly flow around the surface ridge over the Gulf tries to move moisture inland over the Southeast, creating a band of higher moisture (precipitable h20 values above 2") over the northern Gulf coast and open Gulf waters. Friday, a more southwest low level flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western portions of the Southeast will move moisture more inland. A seabreeze moving inland from the coast each afternoon will help to shift moisture inland. For the forecast area, the moisture pooling along and south of the coast will keep the higher rain chances along and south of the coast. A bit better moisture influx over western portions of the forecast area will help showers and thunderstorms to develop further inland than over areas east of the Tombigbee/Mobile Rivers. Am expecting a seasonal diurnal shifting of convection developing over and south over the coast overnight into the morning hours, then developing inland during the afternoon and early evening. Increasing upper subsidence over the forecast area will keep temperatures at or above seasonal norms. Temperatures top out in the low to mid 90s today. Mid to upper 90s are expected Friday over most of the forecast area. Heat indices are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria in the Near Term, topping out in the 100 to 106 degree range each day. Temperatures tonight are expected to bottom out in the low 70s to mid 70s inland from the coast to mid to upper 70s along the coast. A low risk of Rip currents is expected into the coming week, even as the tidal range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason. /16 SHORT/LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 457 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The forecast area will remain on the eastern periphery of a mid level trough moving through the Ohio and TN Valleys Friday night night with mid level ridging to our southeast. Mid and upper level ridging will then begin to build over the region Saturday and become fully established over the area by the early through middle part of next week. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will remain possible through the middle part of next week, with the highest coverage in the afternoon and early evening hours. Daytime heating, sea breeze interactions, and residual outflow boundaries will be the primary factors for convective initiation. So basically a typical summer time pattern. Temperatures through the period will be seasonably warm, with highs each afternoon warming into the mid and upper 90 inland and lower 90s along the coast. Overnight lows falling into the low to mid 70s over our interior counties to upper 70s to around 80 closer to and along the coast. Excessive heat will become a concern towards the latter half of the weekend and especially into the early part of next week, with heat indices approaching 108-110 degrees each day. DS/12 MARINE... Issued at 457 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A general westerly component to winds is expected through the forecast, with a daytime onshore component, nighttime offshore component developing each day. Magnitude is expected to remain generally light. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob