Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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376 FXUS64 KMOB 112101 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Mostly dry conditions have persisted across the area this afternoon with PWATs ranging from 1.5 inches well inland to around 1.8-2.0 inches along the immediate coast. Current radar imagery notes an inland advancing sea-breeze and it is possible that we could see a few isolated showers and storms develop over southeast Mississippi or along southwest Alabama along this boundary late this afternoon or early this evening. Any storms that develop should quickly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening with dry conditions expected overnight. Temperatures are currently sitting in the upper 80s and lower 90s and will fall back into the 70s late tonight. A similar pattern is expected on Friday as upper level ridging remains in place over northeastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will gradually improve through the day as a surface trough over the area weakens. The better moisture content will be in place along southern portions of the area as well as over southeast Mississippi and the open Gulf waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will likely begin developing in these areas and along the sea-breeze Friday afternoon before gradually spreading inland through the early evening. Temperatures will be hot with highs topping out in the middle and upper 90s. Light winds will result in a low risk of rip currents at all area beaches through Friday. /14 && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 To start the short term, a long-wave upper trough will be situated from the OH to the Lower MS River Valley. This feature eases eastward to over the Appalachians late in the weekend. Meanwhile, an upper ridge holds over the deep south. Precipitable water values range 1.90 to 2.20" and appears we will be in a typical summertime convective mode with showers and storms scattered in coverage during the afternoons as a weak surface pressure trough lingers over the southeast. The sea-breeze boundary will also help to focus ascent at time of sufficient instability within the presence of a deeply moist environment. The PoPs are capped at a 30-50% range over the weekend as upper level ridge acts to limit higher coverage. Severe weather risk is low, but localized storms could be strong enough to produce brief wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours. Away from storms, which will provide temporary relief from the summer heat, daytime highs range from the mid to upper 90`s. This combined with a return to surface dewpoints well into the 70`s suggest heat index values will be on the increase. Heat advisories may be required especially Sunday with main focus area over the southwest half of the local area, including the coastal zones. A low risk of rip currents is forecast over the weekend. /10 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A diurnal, persistence type summer pattern carries into next week with potential of scattered, to perhaps numerous mainly afternoon showers and storms. Storms may linger into each evening before dissipating. May see another front easing southward across the Lower MS River Valley by Thursday which would aid in increased coverage of storms. In the temerature headlines, may very well be dealing with heat advisory criteria (108-112) for large sections of the local area each day next week. /10 && .MARINE... Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Light winds will follow a mainly diurnal pattern through the weekend with onshore flow during the day and offshore flow at night. A light southwesterly to westerly flow takes hold early next week. Therefore, no major impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 94 75 95 77 97 77 96 / 10 30 10 30 10 50 10 50 Pensacola 76 94 78 94 79 94 80 94 / 10 30 10 30 10 50 10 50 Destin 79 93 81 93 81 93 81 93 / 10 20 10 30 10 40 20 50 Evergreen 70 96 73 97 74 97 74 97 / 0 20 0 20 10 30 10 50 Waynesboro 72 97 73 98 74 99 75 97 / 0 20 0 30 10 40 10 40 Camden 71 96 73 97 74 98 75 97 / 0 10 0 10 0 30 10 40 Crestview 72 97 73 98 74 98 75 97 / 10 20 0 30 10 50 10 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob