008
FXUS64 KMOB 130031
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
731 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a
southward moving outflow boundary that is approaching I-10 in
coastal Alabama. This will result in a period of reduced
visibilities in heavier rain along with MVFR ceilings at KMOB and
KBFM through at least 01z. There will also be a brief period of
northerly winds between 5-10 kts with the associated outflow
boundary as it progresses south. There remains uncertainty
regarding if this boundary can initiate convection towards the
beaches or if the outflow will undercut convection. Maintained a
vicinity mention of thunder at KJKL through 02z. Further east,
convection that developed near KPNS is showing signs of decay. All
convection near the TAF sites should end between 02-03z this
evening with skies clearing. Winds should remain light after
convection dies out.

Additional isolated to potentially scattered convection will again
redevelop mainly along the bay and sea breezes on Saturday
afternoon. Coverage will likely be lower tomorrow as upper ridging
builds. Kept a vicinity mention to account for this potential.
/JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A broad upper level ridge over the western Atlantic will continue
to build westward through Saturday. At the sfc, a light west to
southwest flow will maintain higher precipitable water values
around 2 inches, mainly along the coast. Slightly drier air will
exist inland with values around 1.8 inches. This will lead to
similar conditions on Saturday with highs in the mid/upper 90s
inland to low/mid 90s near the coast. Heat index values will climb
into the 105 to 108 range during the afternoon across the
southern third of the area. A heat advisory may be required across
portions of the area. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning
and spread inland through the afternoon. Severe storms are not
expected, however frequent lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy
rain can be expected with the storms. /13

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Summer marches on this week with continued heat but also
some rain chances showing up towards the end of the week. High
pressure will nose into the area Sunday through Tuesday leading to a
rather standard summertime pattern. Rain chances will remain
confined mostly to the seabreeze and land breeze circulations and
then slowly spreading inland with outflow boundaries. Given the
relatively benign flow and net subsidence  over the area, coverage
should remain rather scattered to isolated. Heat will be the main
talk as moisture slowly builds and with the lack of cloud cover
highs will be able to climb into the mid to upper 90s leading to
heat indices around 105. The overall pattern will change by the
middle of the week as a rather deep trough for this time of year
digs into the eastern US. Deep southwesterly flow will develop a
loft as moisture increases across the area. RAin chances will likely
be on the rise as a subtle boundary slowly drifts southward into the
central Alabama. If anything, this pattern appears to be a rather
soggy period with the potential for several rounds of heavier rain
as PWATS climb into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range. The good news is
that it would keep the temperatures down a bit with only highs in
the low 90s. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  95  75  95  76  94  77  94 /  20  50  10  50  10  50  10  50
Pensacola   78  94  79  94  79  93  80  93 /  20  40  10  50  20  50  20  50
Destin      80  93  81  92  80  91  81  92 /  10  30  10  40  20  40  20  50
Evergreen   72  97  74  97  75  96  75  95 /  10  30   0  40  10  50  10  70
Waynesboro  73  98  74  98  75  96  75  97 /  20  30  10  40  10  50  10  50
Camden      72  97  75  98  76  96  75  96 /  10  20   0  30  10  40  10  70
Crestview   74  98  75  97  75  96  76  96 /  10  40   0  40  10  50  10  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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