Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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432 FXUS64 KMOB 131119 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Local drops to MVFR levels possible between 12z and 15z near the coast with isolated shra/tsra possible, then again between 20z and 02z. A seabreeze developing along the coast in the afternoon will shift general northerly winds around 5 knots to south to southwesterly around 10 knots closer to the coast as it moves inland. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 450 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 An upper level ridge stretching southwest over the northern Gulf of Mexico from the open Atlantic shifts north to over the northern Gulf coast by Sunday evening. A surface ridge over the Gulf becomes better organized, increasing moisture levels to over 2" forecast area-wide by Sunday afternoon, well above seasonal norms of 1.7" to 1.85". Even with the increase in upper subsidence from the northward advancing upper ridge, the increasing moisture levels will bring increasing rain chances. The rain coverage increases from isolated to scattered today to scattered to numerous on Sunday. Am still expecting the upper subsidence to delay convection firing until the afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise to above seasonal norms. A few of these storms may become strong to marginally severe, with MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg and DCapes in the 600-800J/kg range in the guidance. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected along and north of I-10, low to mid 90s south to the coast. Add in the high moisture levels, Heat indices are expected to top out above above heat advisory levels ( >= 108F ). Today have issued an advisory for the southern third of the forecast area. Will likely need the same for Sunday, possibly a bit further inland, but too early to issue at this time. Not to forget, low temperatures tonight are expected to drop to a bit above seasonal norms, low to mid 70s from the I-10 corridor north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents is expected into the coming week, even as the tidal range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason. /16 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 450 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Upper level high pressure ridge continues over the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. Wednesday through Friday a deepening upper trough will develop over the eastern CONUS. Scattered to locally numerous (at times) showers and storms will be possible through early week, with the best chances associated with the sea breeze circulation early each afternoon and spreading inland somewhat during the late afternoon and early evening hours with outflow boundaries becoming the primary focus. Late night and early morning convection can be expected near the coast and over the marine area just offshore. Available atmospheric moisture remains high, and storms are not expected to move very fast after developing, so locally heavy rainfall could be possible for some locations. Daily rain chances will likely rise Wednesday through Friday as the upper troughing develops and subtle shortwaves periodically swing across the region around the base of the trough. In addition, during the latter half of the period, surface high pressure will weaken and slide off to the east of our area and a weak frontal boundary will likely settle into the interior portions of MS and AL. Heat issues will be the most impactful concern during the period, especially through about Wednesday before the upper ridging erodes. Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will likely climb into the mid and upper 90s across most of the area, and combined with dewpoint temperatures well into the 70s, we will likely be looking at afternoon heat indices that will be be fairly widespread in the 108-110 degree range. Heat Advisory products will likely be required each day, for at least portions of the area, Monday through Wednesday. Increased PoPs and cloud cover Thursday and Friday should limit heat indices below advisory levels for those days, but it will still be hot with highs generally in the lower 90s for most locations. Nighttime lows through the period will range from the low to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. DS/12 MARINE... Issued at 450 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A general westerly component to winds are expected through the forecast, with a daytime onshore component, nighttime offshore component developing. Magnitude is expected to remain generally light. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 75 94 76 94 76 94 76 / 50 20 60 10 50 10 50 20 Pensacola 93 77 92 79 93 79 92 78 / 50 20 60 10 50 20 50 30 Destin 92 79 91 81 92 80 92 80 / 40 10 50 10 50 20 50 30 Evergreen 96 73 96 73 96 73 95 73 / 40 10 50 10 60 20 50 20 Waynesboro 96 73 97 74 96 74 96 74 / 30 20 60 20 60 20 50 20 Camden 96 73 97 74 96 74 95 73 / 20 10 40 10 50 20 50 20 Crestview 96 73 96 74 96 75 95 74 / 50 20 60 10 60 20 60 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob