114
FXUS64 KMOB 132102
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Expect a rinse and repeat of today with maybe a little less
coverage along the coast during the mid-morning hours. The weak
upper trough that has been situated across the mid-south will
continue to slowly weaken as high pressure builds westward across
the northern Gulf. This will likely usher in slightly drier air
aloft, but also keep us in our standard diurnal pattern. Expect
the usual storms to develop along the landbreeze during the
morning just offshore then slowly progress inland throughout the
afternoon with the seabreeze. Given the drier air aloft storms may
struggle to persist but if they can cluster up enough then some
stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall may develop.
The best rain chances during the afternoon appear to be west of
I-65 closer to the periphery of the upper ridge and better
moisture is located. Given the likely presence of the ridge, ample
sunshine will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to
possibly upper 90s across the area. In most locations inland,
dewpoints will likely mix out leading to hot but not advisory
criteria hot. However along the coast, there may be a period
during the afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland where heat
indices could reach advisory criteria. The only question mark is
the potential for clouds and rain. For now we will hold off on a
new heat advisory but if confidence increases in the potential for
heat indices exceeding 108 then an advisory will be needed for
tomorrow. BB/03



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

To close out the week, the global models and short range ensembles
indicate a trough axis at high levels extending from the Mid-
Atlantic coast to the eastern Gulf while an upper ridge is
positioned over TX. Between the two pressure features is a high
level northwest flow with a signal of deep layer dry air
overspreading the area Friday night. The TX upper ridge slides
eastward over the Gulf over the weekend. Larger scale sinking with
the upper ridge and limited deep layer moisture with PWAT values
at or less than 1.00" Saturday favors a rain-free day. Sunday, the
deep layer moisture signal of PWAT does edge slightly higher to
around 1.25". However, the presence of the deep layer ridge aloft
would continue to support keeping a mention of PoPs out of the
forecast. At the surface, a weakly defined pressure trough/front
slips southward to the south of the coast Saturday and eventually
dissipates Sunday.

Daytime temperatures heating up with highs Saturday and Sunday
lifting into the lower to mid 90s. Lower daytime RH Saturday favors
heat indices staying close to the actual highs, but on Sunday, heat
indices look to be approaching 100 to 103 in some areas as daytime
humidity is slightly higher then.

A decreasing tidal cycle and a weak pressure pattern, resulting in
light winds, will keep the rip current risk at low levels through
the weekend. /10



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The 06.12Z weather models indicate another southern stream
impulse sliding eastward out of TX and with deep moisture
modifying ahead of its approach supports a return chance of
summer-time storms Monday. Upper trough slips eastward across the
Lower MS River Valley into the middle of next week bringing a
return to a more unsettled period with a chance of showers and
storms. Very possible we will see convective systems which could
bring some impacts dropping south and eastward over the local
area middle of next week, but timing of these this far out is low
confidence. Clouds and better rain chances would lend support on
tapering back daily highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday
and Wednesday. /10



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A weak westerly flow is expected through the weekend and into
early next week. A typical diurnal seabreeze/landbreeze will
provide a nearshore winds a more onshore/offshore component. No
impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible
near thunderstorms. BB/03



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  95  77  94  76  93  75  93 /  20  60  20  60  20  60  20  60
Pensacola   79  93  79  92  78  92  78  92 /  10  50  20  50  20  60  30  60
Destin      81  92  80  92  80  91  79  90 /  10  40  20  50  30  50  30  50
Evergreen   74  97  74  95  73  94  73  92 /  20  60  20  60  20  60  30  60
Waynesboro  74  97  74  95  74  96  74  94 /  30  60  20  60  20  60  20  60
Camden      75  97  74  95  74  95  74  93 /  10  50  20  60  20  60  30  60
Crestview   75  97  74  95  74  95  73  94 /  20  50  20  70  20  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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