988
FXUS64 KMOB 160946
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
446 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Earlier scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms that
were prolific lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds producers
across portions of southwest and south central AL late Monday
evening and night have pretty much diminished as of 3 AM CDT. A few
showers or an isolated thunderstorm or two could still develop
within the moist airmass through the early morning hours, so we have
left a low chance of convection in the forecast through 7 AM CDT.

A relatively weak southwesterly to southerly flow pattern aloft will
prevail across our forecast area today as our region will be within
a weakness between ridging over the southern Rockies/High Plains and
another weak ridge aloft extending from the eastern Gulf through the
Florida peninsula and adjacent southwestern Atlantic. Plentiful
moisture will continue to reside across our forecast area today with
precipitable water values continuing to generally average from
between 1.75" to a little over 2". This deeply moist airmass
combined with ascent associated with minor shortwave perturbations
moving over the area within the weakness aloft and convergence along
the seabreeze will result in relative high convective chances over
the area today, with another round of scattered to locally numerous
showers and storms developing during the late morning and afternoon.
We have POPs generally ranging between 40-65 percent across the
region by this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms may linger
into the evening hours before diminishing after dark. The unsettled
pattern continues on Wednesday as the base of an upper trough moves
into the TN/Mid-MS Valley region. Plentiful deep layer moisture
remains in place over our area, so the pattern will once again favor
good convective chances over the region again by Wednesday
afternoon. Hot and humid conditions can be expected prior to and
outside of convective initiation. Highs in the mid 90s inland and
around 90 to the lower 90s along the coast combined with dewpoints
in the 70s will result in heat indices between 105-110 over much of
the area today and probably again on Wednesday. Will maintain the
Heat Advisory for the entire region today and let the next shift
assess the need for another on Wednesday. The risk of rip currents
looks to remain low for the next several days. /21

&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

An upper ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf of
Mexico/eastern Southeast shifts south as an upper trough over the
Mississippi River Valley deepens. A surface ridge stretching west
over the Gulf shifts east in response, with southwesterly flow from
the Gulf to more easterly, helping to maintain the soupy airmass
(precipitable h20 values > 2") over the forecast area and nearby.
Guidance is advertising a surface cold front shifting southeast over
the Lower Mississippi River Valley towards the forecast mid week
before stalling northwest of the forecast area Thursday, helping to
provide the focus for daytime rain production. Daily showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the weekend into the coming week
as weakening upper subsidence from the shifting upper ridge combines
with the approaching surface front and high moisture levels to bring
above seasonal chances of rain to the forecast area. Am expecting
the current offshore overnight/onshore afternoon into evening
pattern of convection to continue, with scattered to numerous
showers showers and thunderstorms forming offshore as a landbreeze
sets up south of the coast, then moving/redeveloping inland during
the day/evening. The chance of strong to marginally severe storms
decrease with lessening availability of instability, but will need
to monitor. Will also need to monitor for water issues, as the
coverage of these efficient rain producing storms increases.

The weakening upper subsidence and high rain chances will limit
daytime heating a bit more than previous days. High temperatures
Thursday in the low to mid 90s Thursday drop to a bit below seasonal
by the weekend, upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices drop below
advisory levels by Friday, but another advisory is likely to be
needed Thursday.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly to westerly flow is
expected through the week. There is a chance of thunderstorms each
day this week with favorable conditions for waterspouts in the
mornings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  76  94  76  92  75  89  74 /  50  20  60  20  90  70  90  60
Pensacola   92  78  91  79  92  77  89  77 /  50  20  60  40  90  60  80  60
Destin      90  81  91  81  91  79  89  79 /  50  20  60  40  80  60  70  60
Evergreen   95  73  94  74  92  73  87  71 /  50  30  60  30  90  70  90  50
Waynesboro  96  73  97  74  93  72  87  71 /  40  30  60  30  90  70  90  40
Camden      95  73  95  74  92  71  86  71 /  40  30  60  40  90  70  90  50
Crestview   94  74  94  74  93  73  90  73 /  70  20  60  20  90  60  90  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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