108
FXUS64 KMOB 060924
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The rest of this weekend appears to be a rinse and repeat of what
has happened the past couple days. An active Summer time pattern
persists with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected again both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. A stalled
boundary over the forecast area will once again serve as our
primary mechanism for storm development, with primary hazards from
storms being heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. PWATs remain
very high in the 2.2 to 2.5 inch range today and tomorrow, meaning
storms will likely be very heavy rain producers with potential
for localized flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas
possible in any locations that see training storms.

Outside of storms the heat is on again this afternoon.
Temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90`s coupled with high
dewpoints in the middle to upper 70`s inland and lower 80`s nearer
the coast will support another day of heat index values exceeding
105 to 110 degrees. A heat advisory goes into effect this morning,
lasting through the late afternoon for much of southwestern Alabama
into the Florida panhandle. In southeastern Mississippi, storm and
cloud coverage should remain sufficient to keep temperatures
slightly cooler, and likewise heat index values of 100 to 105 are
expected in those areas. It is possible we hit heat advisory
criteria again on Sunday, however extent of storm coverage may keep
temperatures down enough to keep heat index values in the 100 to 107
range. If confidence increases on warmer high temperatures and/or
lesser storm coverage, a heat advisory could be needed for a large
portion of the forecast area.

Our beach hazards continue as we move through the rest of the
weekend. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect through
Sunday night. The anticipated swell packet associated with now
Tropical Storm Beryl arrived late yesterday afternoon resulting in a
rapid and significant uptick in the presence of strong rip currents
at AL/FL beaches. The swell period should gradually diminish,
however anticipate a continued threat for strong rip currents
through at least Sunday morning/afternoon, gradually waning into the
evening and night time hours. A coastal flood advisory remains in
effect for all of the AL/FL panhandle coast where minor flooding
associated with wave run-up due to the swell may occur. This is
particularly the case in our more vulnerable areas such as the
west end of Dauphin Island and the Fort Pickens area. MM/25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

There will be little change to the overall weather pattern late
this weekend into the middle part of next week. Upper level
ridging will continue to nose westward from the western Atlantic
through the north central Gulf Coast region through Wednesday.
Abundant deep layer moisture will remain entrenched over our
forecast area underneath the ridge axis each day, with
precipitable water values generally continuing to average between
1.75 and 2.25 inches. We expect the typical diurnal pattern to
continue each day through Wednesday, with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms initially developing near the coast
early each morning before increasing in coverage across the
forecast area during the day within the moist and unstable
environment. Convective coverage should become numerous each
afternoon with POPs trending in excess of 60 percent. Upper level
ridging may tend to strengthen somewhat over our region by the
latter part of the week with a slight increase in height rises
noted in the operational GFS and ECMWF guidance. We still anticipate
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop as usual
each day through Friday as plentiful deep layer moisture remains
in place across our region, though POPs do trend downward slightly
(40-50 percent coverage) Thursday and Friday. Temperatures remain
near to slightly above average each day, with highs generally
ranging from around 90 degrees to the mid 90s Monday through
Wednesday and mostly in the lower to mid 90s Thursday and Friday.
Heat index values continue to range at least between 102-107
degrees through much of the extended period, and up to around 110
degrees at times over some locations, so Heat Advisory issuances
may be needed. /21

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A light southerly flow continues through the rest of the weekend as
larger period swell from Beryl persists in the marine waters.
Increased waves from Beryl will arrive by the beginning of next week
and onshore winds will gradually become more westerly by mid-week.
BB/03 MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  77  93  76  92  77  90  76 /  70  40  60  20  60  40  70  40
Pensacola   92  80  90  79  91  80  90  79 /  70  30  60  30  60  40  70  40
Destin      91  81  88  80  90  81  90  80 /  70  30  60  30  60  40  70  40
Evergreen   93  74  92  74  93  74  91  73 /  70  30  60  40  70  30  70  30
Waynesboro  93  74  93  73  95  74  91  73 /  60  30  60  30  60  30  80  30
Camden      93  74  92  74  93  73  92  73 /  60  30  60  40  70  30  70  30
Crestview   95  76  93  74  93  75  91  75 /  70  30  60  30  70  30  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ052>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob