Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
153 FNUS72 KMLB 110945 FWSMLB Spot Forecast for C-238 Hinson...USFS National Weather Service Melbourne FL 545 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on July 11. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Good morning. Higher coverage of showers and storms today, with activity getting an earlier start than usual. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are ongoing this morning, with activity pushing into the burn site area from the north. This activity will continue through the morning hours, with activity generally moving southward at 20 to 25 mph. Showers and storms may redevelop this afternoon, depending on how much daytime heating occurs across the area. Local guidance is in favor of activity redeveloping this afternoon, with the greatest chance for showers and storms developing at or around the burn site occurring early to mid afternoon. Main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous days due to higher cloud cover, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. West to West-southwest winds will persist today, with speeds around 10 mph or less. Smoke dispersion values will be generally good today. Scattered showers and storms possible on Friday afternoon, with the greatest potential for storms occurring across the far western interior where boundary collisions are forecast to occur. Warming trend will begin on Friday, with temperatures in the low 90s. West to west-southwest winds will remain, with speeds 10 mph or less. Smoke dispersion values will be good on Friday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chance of pcpn......50 percent. LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1100, then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 91. Min humidity........60 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL late in the morning. Transport winds.....West 8 to 14 mph. Dispersion index....9 increasing to 56. LVORI...............6 decreasing to 2. TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........54 58 60 69 69 68 72 74 73 75 75 Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 20 30 30 30 40 50 50 40 40 LAL.............2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Temp............77 78 80 84 85 87 88 88 89 90 88 RH..............94 94 88 80 77 70 68 68 64 60 61 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 20 FT wind gust.10 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.8 1.3 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.8 10 12 12 12 12 12 10 12 13 14 Dispersion idx..5 12 19 30 35 43 47 49 53 57 58 LVORI...........6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight chance of showers early in the evening. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until 2100, then No Tstms. Min temperature.....Around 74. Max humidity........97 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Transport winds.....West 7 to 13 mph. Dispersion index....42 decreasing to 4. LVORI...............1 increasing to 8. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........67 74 60 54 53 43 Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).40 20 10 10 0 0 LAL.............3 2 1 1 1 1 Temp............88 84 81 79 77 75 RH..............63 72 79 82 85 90 20 ft wind......W 6 SW 3 SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 20 ft wind gust.14 12 9 8 7 7 Mix hgt (ft)....2900 1200 500 400 400 400 Transport wind..W 13 W 10 W 9 W 9 W 8 W 8 Dispersion idx..42 5 4 4 4 4 LVORI...........1 3 4 5 6 6 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until 1400, then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 95. Min humidity........51 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the morning. Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 6200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 6 to 12 mph. Dispersion index....4 increasing to 62. LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........39 30 45 53 Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC LIKELY Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).0 20 20 60 LAL.............1 2 2 3 Temp............75 82 90 93 RH..............90 82 58 51 20 FT wind......SW 2G7 W 2G8 W 3G10 SW 6G13 Mix hgt (ft)....400 2000 5200 5600 Transport wind..SW 6 W 7 W 8 SW 10 Dispersion idx..3 16 49 65 LVORI...........6 3 1 1 $$ Forecaster...Watson Requested by...Alan Kirby Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2417753.0/MLB .DELDT 07/11/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Alan.Kirby@usda.gov