Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
226 FNUS72 KMLB 111002 FWSMLB Spot Forecast for Triple N - 33/37N/4/8...FWC National Weather Service Melbourne FL 602 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 11. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Good morning. Higher coverage of showers and storms today, with activity getting an earlier start than usual. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are ongoing this morning, with activity expected to push into the burn site area from the north later this morning. This activity will continue through the morning hours, with activity generally moving southward at 20 to 25 mph. Showers and storms may redevelop this afternoon, depending on how much daytime heating occurs across the area. Greatest potential for redeveloping showers and storms at or near the burn site will be into mid-late afternoon. Main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous days due to higher cloud cover, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. West to West-southwest winds will persist today, with speeds around 10 mph or less. Smoke dispersion values will be fair today. Scattered showers and storms possible on Friday afternoon, with the greatest potential for storms occurring across the far western interior where boundary collisions are forecast to occur. Warming trend will begin on Friday, with temperatures in the low 90s. West to west-southwest winds will remain, with speeds of 10 mph or less. Smoke dispersion values will be fair once again on Friday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of showers early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 0900, then 1-8 strikes until 1100, then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 88. Min humidity........68 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph. Dispersion index....10 increasing to 36 late in the morning decreasing to 28 late in the afternoon. LVORI...............7 decreasing to 4 in the late morning and afternoon. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........65 69 71 75 75 77 77 79 81 80 Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Chc of pcpn (%).20 40 50 50 40 40 50 70 70 60 LAL.............1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Temp............76 79 81 82 84 85 85 85 86 85 RH..............100 91 85 82 77 75 75 72 68 70 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W SW SW 20 FT wind spd..6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 20 FT wind gust.12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.7 1.9 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W SW Transp wind spd.10 13 13 13 15 13 13 13 13 13 Dispersion idx..10 21 27 32 40 38 35 35 37 28 LVORI...........7 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers overnight. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2200, then 1-8 strikes until 2300, then No Tstms. Min temperature.....Around 73. Max humidity........100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 13 mph. Dispersion index....21 decreasing to 7 early in the evening. LVORI...............4 increasing to 9. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........75 73 78 72 64 65 65 60 60 59 53 49 Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH Chc of pcpn (%).60 50 50 40 30 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.............3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............84 84 80 78 77 76 76 75 75 75 74 73 RH..............72 70 77 85 87 90 87 94 90 94 97 100 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 20 FT wind gust.13 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.12 13 12 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 Dispersion idx..25 17 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 6 5 6 6 6 7 9 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until 1400, then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 92. Min humidity........58 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the morning. Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 3000 ft AGL late in the morning. Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 12 mph. Dispersion index....6 increasing to 35. LVORI...............6 decreasing to 2. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........44 40 40 39 43 46 50 54 58 60 63 65 Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 70 70 70 70 LAL.............1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Temp............74 74 75 80 83 85 87 88 90 90 90 90 RH..............93 93 97 85 77 72 68 63 60 59 58 58 20 FT wind dir..S SW SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S 20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.8 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 Transp wind dir.SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 12 Dispersion idx..5 4 8 17 26 34 36 37 39 37 34 30 LVORI...........6 6 6 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 $$ Forecaster...Watson Requested by...Steve Glass Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2417749.0/MLB .DELDT 07/11/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL steve.glass@myfwc.com