865
FNUS72 KMLB 120948
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for TM-19...Tomoka State Park
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
548 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good morning. Scattered showers and lightning storms are expected to
develop this afternoon and evening at or around the burn site. However,
due to drier air filtering in across the area in the mid-layers, shower
and storm development may be limited. Any storms that do form today will
be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to
50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Surface flow will become south-southwest
today, with speeds generally 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze will
try to form today, and may make it to the burn site, which will back the winds
more onshore. Warming trend will begin today, with afternoon highs in the
low to mid 90s. Smoke dispersion values will be fair today.

Scattered showers and storms will be possible into the weekend, with the
greatest potential for showers and storms occurring west of the burn site
each afternoon and evening. Winds will become south-southeast on Saturday
and continue through the weekend, with speeds generally around 10 mph or less.
Smoke dispersion values will be poor on Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the east 6 to
                    10 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 3300 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph.
Dispersion index....30.
LVORI...............4.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 79.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Dispersion index....26.
LVORI...............5.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 7 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 2500 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....South around 9 mph.
Dispersion index....27.
LVORI...............6.

$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Robert McGinty
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2417798.2/MLB
.DELDT 07/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert.mcginty@floridadep.gov