Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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837
FNUS72 KMLB 090938
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for C-288 Hotel RX...USFS, Ocala National Forest
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
538 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon temperatures near 90 degrees will combine with high
humidity to produce heat index vales between 100-105 under mostly
cloudy skies. This level of heat can affect anyone without
adequate precautions. Predominately light west to southwest winds
are expected to result in sea breeze and boundary collisions
mainly to the east of I-4, as well as towards the Space and
Treasure Coasts with the highest shower (PoPs ~60-80%) and
lightning storm chances there this afternoon and early evening.
Scattered showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms are
forecast to develop into this afternoon and evening at the burn
site with a slow storm motion generally to the east-southeast.

The main hazard with slow moving showers and storms will be
locally heavy rainfall (1-3" with local amounts up to 4+") which will
have the potential to result in minor flooding of low-lying areas
and roadways. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists for
all of east central Florida for this reason. Additionally,
isolated stronger storms capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph and
occasional to frequent lightning strikes are forecast this
afternoon. Rain and storm chances gradually diminish after sunset
and end by midnight. Dispersion values will be Fair to Generally
Good.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning, then showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 3600 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 12 mph increasing to around 15 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 40.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  72  79  66  60  66  73  68  73  75
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  20  30  40  50  60  70  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............77  80  83  86  87  88  88  87  88  85
RH..............98  92  83  77  75  69  70  71  69  75
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   5   5   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.6   7   9   10  12  14  15  15  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.7 3.6 3.5 2.8 2.3 2.0
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.6   5   5   8   8   9   12  15  15  15
Dispersion idx..5   7   10  22  31  42  41  41  40  37
LVORI...........9   6   4   3   3   2   3   3   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........98 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 8 mph after 3 am.
Dispersion index....28 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 6 early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........73     68     63     61     43     46
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50     30     20     10     10     10
LAL.............3      3      2      1      1      1
Temp............85     81     79     79     77     77
RH..............74     85     88     88     89     92
20 ft wind......W 6    W 5    SW 3   SW 3   SW 3   SW 3
20 ft wind gust.14     12     8      7      7      8
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   800    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..W 14   W 8    W 7    W 7    SW 7   SW 8
Dispersion idx..28     5      3      3      3      3
LVORI...........3      5      6      6      6      6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning. Chance of showers
                    early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph early in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 58.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........56        65        48        69
Weather cov.....          CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        40        40        40
LAL.............1         1         3         3
Temp............76        82        87        90
RH..............95        86        71        61
20 FT wind......SW 3G8    SW 5G10   W 7G14    W 8G16
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1000      2900      4300
Transport wind..SW 7      W 7       W 9       W 12
Dispersion idx..3         10        35        59
LVORI...........8         5         3         1

$$
Forecaster...Fehling
Requested by...Tim Woody/ AFMO
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2417564.3/MLB
.DELDT 07/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL timothy.woody2@usda.gov