Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
837 FNUS72 KMLB 090938 FWSMLB Spot Forecast for C-288 Hotel RX...USFS, Ocala National Forest National Weather Service Melbourne FL 538 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 09. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Afternoon temperatures near 90 degrees will combine with high humidity to produce heat index vales between 100-105 under mostly cloudy skies. This level of heat can affect anyone without adequate precautions. Predominately light west to southwest winds are expected to result in sea breeze and boundary collisions mainly to the east of I-4, as well as towards the Space and Treasure Coasts with the highest shower (PoPs ~60-80%) and lightning storm chances there this afternoon and early evening. Scattered showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop into this afternoon and evening at the burn site with a slow storm motion generally to the east-southeast. The main hazard with slow moving showers and storms will be locally heavy rainfall (1-3" with local amounts up to 4+") which will have the potential to result in minor flooding of low-lying areas and roadways. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists for all of east central Florida for this reason. Additionally, isolated stronger storms capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes are forecast this afternoon. Rain and storm chances gradually diminish after sunset and end by midnight. Dispersion values will be Fair to Generally Good. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of showers early in the morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes until 1400, then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 90. Min humidity........69 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 3600 ft AGL in the afternoon. Transport winds.....West 5 to 12 mph increasing to around 15 mph late in the afternoon. Dispersion index....8 increasing to 40. LVORI...............9 decreasing to 3. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........76 72 79 66 60 66 73 68 73 75 Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 20 30 40 50 60 70 60 LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 Temp............77 80 83 86 87 88 88 87 88 85 RH..............98 92 83 77 75 69 70 71 69 75 20 FT wind dir..S SW SW SW SW W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..2 3 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.6 7 9 10 12 14 15 15 16 15 Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.7 3.6 3.5 2.8 2.3 2.0 Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.6 5 5 8 8 9 12 15 15 15 Dispersion idx..5 7 10 22 31 42 41 41 40 37 LVORI...........9 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the evening. Chance of pcpn......50 percent. LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2100, then 1-8 strikes until 2300, then No Tstms. Min temperature.....Around 75. Max humidity........98 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 6 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest around 8 mph after 3 am. Dispersion index....28 decreasing to 4. LVORI...............3 increasing to 6 early in the evening. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........73 68 63 61 43 46 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).50 30 20 10 10 10 LAL.............3 3 2 1 1 1 Temp............85 81 79 79 77 77 RH..............74 85 88 88 89 92 20 ft wind......W 6 W 5 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3 20 ft wind gust.14 12 8 7 7 8 Mix hgt (ft)....1600 800 400 400 400 400 Transport wind..W 14 W 8 W 7 W 7 SW 7 SW 8 Dispersion idx..28 5 3 3 3 3 LVORI...........3 5 6 6 6 6 .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of showers early in the morning. Chance of showers early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms late in the morning. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 93. Min humidity........58 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL in the afternoon. Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 mph. Dispersion index....7 increasing to 58. LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........56 65 48 69 Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).10 40 40 40 LAL.............1 1 3 3 Temp............76 82 87 90 RH..............95 86 71 61 20 FT wind......SW 3G8 SW 5G10 W 7G14 W 8G16 Mix hgt (ft)....400 1000 2900 4300 Transport wind..SW 7 W 7 W 9 W 12 Dispersion idx..3 10 35 59 LVORI...........8 5 3 1 $$ Forecaster...Fehling Requested by...Tim Woody/ AFMO Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2417564.3/MLB .DELDT 07/09/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL timothy.woody2@usda.gov