027
FXUS62 KMLB 062347
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
747 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The forecast remains on track across east central Florida tonight.
Rain chances have continued to decrease as the sea breeze has
pushed farther inland, with drier air helping to limit the
development of showers and storms. A few light showers and a stray
storm or two cannot fully be ruled out over the next couple of
hours across Lake County, so have kept in 20 percent PoPs for the
time being. Otherwise, conditions are forecast to remain mostly
dry tonight, with mostly clear skies and light and variable winds.
Temperatures will remain warm and muggy across east central
Florida, with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Mostly dry
overnight with winds becoming light and variable across the
terminals. Winds are forecast to remain light and variable into
tomorrow morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
develop tomorrow afternoon and push inland, causing winds to
become easterly along the coast around 17Z and across the interior
around 19Z. Increasing chances for VCTS across the interior
tomorrow afternoon as a result of the sea breeze and eventual sea
breeze collision, with activity diminishing around 00Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

- A high risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
  for portions of the coast continues through at least today.

- An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues
  through this weekend.

- Daily chances for showers and lightning storms, especially over
  the interior. Chances will increase early next week.

Rest of Today-Tonight...Drier air has filtered into east central
Florida from the Atlantic and has so far succeeded in preventing
convection from developing as of around 230pm. Satellite
observations even indicate PWATs have fallen to as low as 1.2-1.4"
across the coastal counties. Expect to see this dry trend
continue, with no mentionable PoPs east of Orlando. However,
models continue to suggest showers, and possibly a few storms,
developing over Lake County later this afternoon and into this
evening along the sea breeze collision, where PWATs remain around
2". Have maintained PoPs 30-50% in this area, as showers have
already begun to develop along the western half of the peninsula.
Main threats with any storms will be gusty winds to 45mph,
lightning strikes, and brief heavy downpours. Any convection will
diminish this evening, with dry conditions forecast overnight.

Hot temperatures continue this afternoon, with heat indices just
below Heat Advisory criteria (102-107). As we reach peak heating,
highs will reach the lower to mid-90s, with some upper 90s
possible over the interior. Tonight, temperatures will remain warm
and muggy, with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday-Monday...A mid to upper level low over the western Atlantic
shifts northward into early next week. This will shift winds
southerly across the local area, drawing deeper moisture up from
the tropics. PWATs returning to around 2" will support an increase
in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon. A less
dominant east coast sea breeze will also lead to a more
centralized collision over the Florida peninsula. Thus, the
highest chances for convection will remain over the interior. But,
will see PoPs increase to 30-60% Sunday and around 60% area-wide
on Monday, with peak coverage in the afternoon hours. Temperatures
will remain hot, as deeper moisture maintains high heat indices.
High temperatures are forecast in the lower to mid-90s each day,
though will need to monitor the need for Heat Advisories,
especially on Sunday, due to heat indices 102-107+. Overnight low
temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Tue-Fri (previous)...An onshore component develops by mid-week
continuing into late week. PWATs remain around 2.00 inches and
mid-level ridging will concentrate northward. Daily sea breezes
with offshore steering flow thru Wed, becoming more southerly Thu-
Fri. Keeping PoPs around 60pct areawide until more consistency
dictates otherwise. Highs in the U80s to L90s each day, with
clouds and onset of onshore breezes the deciding factor in the
lower end of high max potential. Lows continue mainly in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Daily chances for showers and storms each day through mid week
next week, with chances increasing through the period. Outside of
convection, generally favorable boating conditions are forecast,
with seas 1-3ft. Onshore winds today will veer southerly Sunday
and Monday, then offshore into mid-week. However, will see winds
back southeasterly each afternoon, as the sea breeze develops.
Winds remaining under 15kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  77  93 /  10  30  10  60
MCO  76  96  78  94 /  10  60  20  60
MLB  77  93  78  92 /   0  30  20  60
VRB  75  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  60
LEE  78  95  78  94 /  20  60  20  60
SFB  77  95  78  94 /  10  50  20  60
ORL  77  96  79  94 /  10  50  20  60
FPR  75  93  76  92 /  10  30  10  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Tollefsen