356
FXUS62 KMLB 051946
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
346 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Key Messages:

- An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues
  through this weekend.

- Daily chances for showers and lightning storms, especially over
  the interior. Chances will increase early next week.

Rest of Today-Tonight...The sea breeze, evident on both visible
satellite imagery and radar continues to quickly move inland early
this afternoon. A few showers have developed along the sea breeze,
with a collision forecast just west of the county warning area.
Interior portions of east central Florida could still see
scattered showers and storms near the collision, so have
maintained PoPs around 50% in this area. Hot temperatures will
begin to cool off after peak heating, with the Heat Advisory
expiring at 6pm. Overnight, dry conditions are forecast, with
morning low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

This Weekend...Mid/upper level low pressure over the western
Atlantic lifts northward this weekend. Locally, onshore winds will
become gradually southerly, drawing PWATs 2+" into the area.
However, prior to this, models suggest slightly drier (~1.4-1.5")
air advecting into central Florida from the east. Thus, PoPs
decrease slightly Saturday, especially east of Orlando, falling to
20-30%. For areas over the interior, PoPs forecast between 40-50%.
PoPs look to respond to increasing moisture on Sunday, becoming
30-50%. The highest PoPs will remain over the interior and southerly
flow will allow for a more centralized sea breeze collision. Hot
temperatures persist, with highs in the lower to mid-90s. A few
locations could approach the upper 90s. Heat risk will continue to
be a concern, with heat indices well over 100 degrees. Will need
to monitor the need for Heat Advisories in future updates
throughout the weekend. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Mon-Thu (previous)...Some weakening of the mid/upper level ridging
is forecast though temperatures aloft (H500) do not improve by more
than a degree or two (-4.5C to -6.0C). PWATs remain soupy (> 2.00 inches)
thru much of the period. The pressure gradient remains weak, with
a daily sea breeze moving inland. Storm steering flow light S/SSW
Mon- Thu. Continue a 50-60% PoP in the afternoon/early evening
period. Highs in the U80s to L90s each day with lows in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Daily chances for showers and storms will persist through the end
of the period. Outside of convection, generally favorable boating
conditions are forecast, with seas 1-3ft. Onshore winds this
weekend will veer south to southwesterly into next week. However,
will see winds back southeasterly each afternoon, as the sea
breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15kts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light E-SE flow
gives way to the sea breezes. ECSB has already pushed inland and
reached KMCO with little SH and no TS activity, so continuing just
VCSH at inland terminals except KLEE, where the ECSB-WCSB
collision will occur near or just west of, and pulled VC mention
from coastal terminals. VFR conditions prevail overnight. Sea
breeze collision Saturday looks to shift back east towards the
inland ECFL terminals, increasing potential for TS impacts after
19Z, but should be mostly dry for coastal terminals again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30
MCO  76  96  77  95 /  10  40  10  50
MLB  76  92  77  92 /   0  20  10  30
VRB  75  92  76  93 /   0  20   0  30
LEE  78  95  78  94 /  30  50  10  60
SFB  76  96  77  95 /  10  30  10  50
ORL  77  96  78  95 /  10  40  10  50
FPR  74  92  76  93 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ044>046-053-058-
     144-254-259-264.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Haley