766
FXUS62 KMLB 200000
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 751 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection. Line of +TSRA over KLEE
will push north over the next couple hours with TS diminishing by
around 02Z, but -RA could linger through 05Z and might even creep
back east towards the I-4 terminals as well. VFR conditions
prevail overnight and through Saturday afternoon, then rinse and
repeat with afternoon thunderstorms. ISO TSRA/SHRA forecast to
start developing near and along the ECSB INVOF the coastal
terminals around 17Z-18Z then push inland. TSRA/SHRA becomes SCT-
NUM as activity approaches the inland terminals around 20Z, with
TEMPOs likely needed in upcoming packages. Generally light SE
winds give way to the sea breeze and outflow from storms.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot temperatures and intense humidity persist through the
  weekend. Expect high temps in the low/mid 90s and heat indices
  from 103 to 109F. Remain hydrated and take breaks in the shade
  or A/C. Know the symptoms of heat illness!

- Scattered to numerous storms (50-80%) on Saturday, with the
  highest coverage near Greater Orlando and I-4. Locally heavy
  rain may lead to minor flooding in urban areas.

- Patchy Saharan dust will pass over the area on Sunday, causing
  hazy conditions and slightly lower storm chances. A disturbance
  will increase the chance of storms again early next week.

---------Synoptic Overview----------

Florida resides on the western edge of a sprawling mid-level ridge
over the Atlantic. A trough across the Mississippi Valley will tend
to retrograde through the next few days as the ridge migrates
westward. This ridge will be the dominant influence on our
weather over the next week, keeping the near-surface high pressure
axis near or north of East Central Florida and maintaining S or
SE winds in the boundary layer.

Total moisture values (PWATs) remain near to just above normal
through tomorrow, before slightly drier air moves across the
peninsula on Sunday. A weakening tropical wave beneath the ridge
will then draw deeper moisture across the state early next week.

H85 temperatures will remain near +19 to +20C over the next week,
yielding near to at times above normal temperatures depending on
cloud and storm coverage.

-----Sensible Weather & Impacts-----

Through Tonight...

Scattered to numerous coverage of lightning storms (50-70%) is
forecast through early evening, initially near and west of I-95
before progressing across the interior / Greater Orlando area before
diminishing after sunset. With deeper moisture, locally heavy rain
could lead to minor flooding of urbanized and poorly drained
locations. A few gusts to 40-45 mph and frequent lightning can also
be anticipated from the stronger storms that form. In all, not too
unusual of a scenario for mid-July. Heat index readings up to
107F will occur through mid-afternoon.

Later tonight, most of the area will be dry and warm with lows in
the mid/upper 70s.

This Weekend...

Deeper moisture holds sway on Saturday, leading to another round of
scattered/numerous (50-80%) storms in the afternoon and early
evening. Potential hazards look similar to today`s activity. We have
highlighted the I-4 corridor with higher storm concentration
(>70% coverage) based on the 19/12Z HREF. This general area,
including Orlando/Sanford/Kissimmee, runs a 20-30% risk of
localized 3"+ rainfall totals in a 60-90 minute period which could
lead to minor flooding.

On Sunday, modified SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is indicated by the
guidance to move over the peninsula. A tell-tale sign of this will
be a dusty, white haze in the sky. However, it should also be
accompanied by slightly drier air aloft. So, while scattered
summertime storms are forecast on both days, the higher coverage
will likely be on Saturday.

It`ll remain hot out there, to be sure. Low/mid 90s remain in the
forecast, with peak heat index values from 103-107F widespread (a
few spots up to 109F or so). Whether the spatial extent of these
high-end values is enough to trigger a Heat Advisory (heat index
>= 108F) is a close call and will be monitored. Either way, take
care of yourself in the heat by staying hydrated and seeking shade
and A/C before you get too hot. Visit weather.gov/safety/heat for
more heat safety information.

Monday - Thursday...

(Previous Discussion) The ridge axis remains near to north of the
area with a wave of deeper tropical moisture pushing northwest into
the region early next week. PW values once again rise to 2+ inches
Monday and Tuesday, which should lead to higher coverage of
afternoon/evening showers and storms, and rain chances therefore
increase to 60-70 percent. This deeper moisture then looks to shift
out of the area by mid-week, with a slight strengthening of
southeast winds on Wednesday and Thursday. This should begin to
focus the greatest coverage of afternoon showers and storms across
the interior. Have PoPs falling to 50 percent along the coast and 60
percent inland on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will continue in the
low to mid 90s, but an increase in clouds/rainfall and then drier
air/earlier development of the sea breeze should keep peak heat
index values just below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Generally good boating conditions will continue through at least
early next week as the weather pattern remains stagnant. A high
pressure ridge axis will remain near or just north of the local
Atlantic, promoting 5-12 KT S/SE winds that will enhance to 10-15 KT
along the coast and become ESE in the afternoon hours. Isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms are still forecast primarily in
the overnight and morning hours. Seas 2-3 FT, occasionally up to 4
FT well offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  76  93 /  20  70  40  50
MCO  77  95  77  95 /  30  80  30  60
MLB  77  91  77  91 /  10  60  20  50
VRB  77  92  76  93 /  20  50  10  40
LEE  77  94  77  95 /  50  80  50  60
SFB  77  95  77  95 /  30  80  40  60
ORL  77  95  77  95 /  30  80  30  60
FPR  76  92  76  92 /  20  50  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Haley