112
FXUS62 KMLB 200250
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1050 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Most of today`s lightning storms have finally dissipated or moved
out of east central Florida, but a few linger on from Daytona to
Leesburg as this line pushes north. Some isolated storms have
also found their way from Palm Beach County into Martin County and
the adjacent Atlantic waters. Most storm gusts this evening were
40 mph or less, one storm did manage to produce dime-sized hail in
Downtown Leesburg, according to a trained spotter. The primary
storm hazard was once again frequent to excessive cloud to ground
lightning.

Updated PoPs and skies a few times through the evening based on
trends and latest HRRR guidance which did a fairly good job,
keeping rain chances around 50 pct along and north of I-4 a few
hours later, and lowering chances to the south an our or two
earlier, than previously advertised. The rest of the forecast
remains in good shape with no changes needed. Most of ECFL has
already quieted down for the night, and those last few storms are
forecast to clear out in the next hour or two. Temperatures settle
to mainly the M-U70s, under partly to mostly cloudy skies that`ll
clear through the night, with light southeasterly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 751 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection. Line of +TSRA over KLEE
will push north over the next couple hours with TS diminishing by
around 02Z, but -RA could linger through 05Z and might even creep
back east towards the I-4 terminals as well. VFR conditions
prevail overnight and through Saturday afternoon, then rinse and
repeat with afternoon thunderstorms. ISO TSRA/SHRA forecast to
start developing near and along the ECSB INVOF the coastal
terminals around 17Z-18Z then push inland. TSRA/SHRA becomes SCT-
NUM as activity approaches the inland terminals around 20Z, with
TEMPOs likely needed in upcoming packages. Generally light SE
winds give way to the sea breeze and outflow from storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Generally good boating conditions will continue through at least
early next week as the weather pattern remains stagnant. A high
pressure ridge axis will remain near or just north of the local
Atlantic, promoting 5-12 KT S/SE winds that will enhance to 10-15 KT
along the coast and become ESE in the afternoon hours. Isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms are still forecast primarily in
the overnight and morning hours. Seas 2-3 FT, occasionally up to 4
FT well offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  76  93 /  30  70  40  50
MCO  77  95  77  95 /  20  80  30  60
MLB  77  91  77  91 /  10  60  20  50
VRB  77  92  76  93 /  10  50  10  40
LEE  77  94  77  95 /  60  80  50  60
SFB  77  95  77  95 /  30  80  40  60
ORL  77  95  77  95 /  30  80  30  60
FPR  76  92  76  92 /  10  50  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Haley