361
FXUS62 KMLB 200541
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
141 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. A few showers
will continue to brush the Treasure Coast overnight, with VCSH
included for SUA. Otherwise, scattered showers and storms are
forecast once again Saturday, beginning along the coast around
17-18Z, then spreading inland through 20-21Z. TEMPOs have been
included for all sites except LEE, which has less confidence in
seeing direct impacts from convection. Southerly winds backing
southeasterly behind the sea breeze in the afternoon hours.
Convection diminishing along the coast first, then inland by 0-2Z.
Winds becoming light overnight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Most of today`s lightning storms have finally dissipated or moved
out of east central Florida, but a few linger on from Daytona to
Leesburg as this line pushes north. Some isolated storms have
also found their way from Palm Beach County into Martin County and
the adjacent Atlantic waters. Most storm gusts this evening were
40 mph or less, one storm did manage to produce dime-sized hail in
Downtown Leesburg, according to a trained spotter. The primary
storm hazard was once again frequent to excessive cloud to ground
lightning.

Updated PoPs and skies a few times through the evening based on
trends and latest HRRR guidance which did a fairly good job,
keeping rain chances around 50 pct along and north of I-4 a few
hours later, and lowering chances to the south an our or two
earlier, than previously advertised. The rest of the forecast
remains in good shape with no changes needed. Most of ECFL has
already quieted down for the night, and those last few storms are
forecast to clear out in the next hour or two. Temperatures settle
to mainly the M-U70s, under partly to mostly cloudy skies that`ll
clear through the night, with light southeasterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Generally good boating conditions will continue through at least
early next week as the weather pattern remains stagnant. A high
pressure ridge axis will remain near or just north of the local
Atlantic, promoting 5-12 KT S/SE winds that will enhance to 10-15 KT
along the coast and become ESE in the afternoon hours. Isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms are still forecast primarily in
the overnight and morning hours. Seas 2-3 FT, occasionally up to 4
FT well offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  75  93  76 /  70  50  50  20
MCO  96  76  95  77 /  70  50  40  20
MLB  91  77  91  78 /  50  30  40  20
VRB  92  76  93  77 /  50  20  40  20
LEE  95  77  95  77 /  80  60  60  20
SFB  96  76  95  77 /  80  60  50  20
ORL  96  77  95  77 /  80  60  50  20
FPR  92  76  92  77 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Leahy