817
FXUS62 KMLB 151308
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
908 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE... (Today & Tonight)
Issued at 908 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms this
  afternoon/evening near the I-4 corridor. Drier conditions
  across the Treasure Coast.

- Heat continues to be a concern across east central Florida, with
  a Moderate to Major HeatRisk persisting this week. Actions to
  prevent heat-related illnesses should be taken.

- Slightly drier conditions mid-week will be short-lived, with
  increasing moisture forecast late this week into the weekend.

It`s another quiet, muggy morning across the area with sunny
skies, except for a batch of clouds streaming toward Orlando from
Osceola Co. Quick heating is in progress, and we will monitor heat
indices once again especially along the Treasure Coast and Lake O
region. However, at this time it appears our dew points are just
a degree or two lower than yesterday. Maximum heat indices will
generally range 102-107F today, but a couple of readings reaching
108-109F for an hour or so wouldn`t surprise us on an isolated
basis. Bottom line, stay hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or
A/C if at all possible to prevent heat-related illness.

As suspected, we have quite a moisture gradient today as some
drier air tries to poke into the Treasure Coast from the Atlantic.
Above normal atmospheric moisture still exists along the I-4
corridor, however. Thus, we expect storm coverage to range from
50-70% near Orlando to Titusville and points northward, lessening
to 20% for the Treasure Coast beaches.

Storms will try to form between 1-3 PM near the sea breeze north
of Melbourne before pushing toward the interior/Orlando area where
propagating outflows and a collision with the Gulf breeze will
occur by early evening.

The primary hazards from today`s storms: gusty winds (10-15%
chance of 40-50 MPH), heavy rain leading to localized urban
flooding, and frequent lightning strikes.

Storms will diminish by mid/late evening with clearing skies
overnight. Lows will fall into the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Tuesday-Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Tuesday-Wednesday...The area of high pressure will continue to
stay in place across the Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday, with
the ridge axis remaining draped across central Florida. However,
model guidance is indicating a pocket of drier air drifting across
the Atlantic and towards the Treasure Coast on Tuesday, and
eventually being advected more northward across portions of east
central Florida on Wednesday, particularly south of the Orlando
metro and the Cape. The GFS and Euro differ slightly on just how
dry things will get on Wednesday, with the GFS being the drier
solution of the two.

As a result, PoPs have been adjusted to account for this drier
air mass. On Tuesday, kept PoPs in the 20-40% range across the
local Atlantic waters and the Treasure Coast. Elsewhere, PoPs are
40-65%, with the highest coverage near the I-4 corridor. By
Wednesday, the drier air will cover a greater portion of east
central Florida, with 20-40% PoPs across areas south of the
Orlando metro and the Cape. Decided to keep higher PoPs (40-60%)
across the interior north and west of the I-4 corridor based on
model guidance showing a rather tight moisture gradient, but would
not be surprised if this is adjusted as more data comes in. The
development of the east coast sea breeze will continue to drive
convective development, with an eventual collision across the
interior leading to increasing coverage in the late afternoon into
early evening time period. Storms will be capable of producing
lightning, wind gusts, and heavy downpours. Activity will
diminish into the overnight hours, with limited development across
the local waters.

Temperatures will continue to climb into the low to mid 90s, with
Wednesday potentially being the warmest day thanks to the drier
airmass leading to reduced cloud coverage locally. Overnight lows
will remain fairly consistent in the mid to upper 70s.

Thursday-Sunday...The area of high pressure across the Atlantic is
forecast to shift back towards the Florida peninsula starting
Thursday, and will continue shifting westward into the weekend.
Increasing moisture locally will lead to increasing rain and storm
chances across east central Florida, with the development of the
east coast sea breeze, movement inland, and eventual sea breeze
collision being the main forcing mechanism driving convective
development each afternoon. Activity will tend to diminish into
the overnight hours across the peninsula, with continued
development across the local waters possible. Temperatures will
remain fairly consistent, with highs in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 719 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Some drier air is moving in from the east across the Treasure
Coast which should limit shower/storm development at VRB-SUA thru
the TAF period. Earlier onset of the sea breeze will occur from
KVRB-KSUA where low level ridge axis is located. Scattered to
numerous SHRA/TSRA should develop along the inland moving sea
breeze boundaries and any collisions across the interior through
the afternoon/early evening hours. CAMs show convective initiation
just inland from the Cape in the early afternoon so have added
TEMPO groups for MVFR conds in TSRA starting off at TIX at
18Z-21Z, DAB 19Z-22Z...then 20Z-23Z SFB/MCO and 21Z-24Z LEE. May
need to add a convective wind gust to some of these TEMPOs.
Maintained VCTS at MLB. Lingering VCSH across interior and
northern terminals 00Z-02Z or so then a quiet/VFR overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters as an area of high pressure remains in
place this week. Winds are expected to remain light at 5 to 10
knots out of the southwest north of the Cape and out of the
southeast south of the Cape, becoming east-southeast at 10 to 15
knots each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland.
Seas will remain between 2 to 3 feet across a majority of the
local waters, with 4 foot seas across the far offshore waters
through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms cannot
fully be ruled out across the local Atlantic waters through the
entire period. Any storms that do develop may be capable of
producing lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  76 /  60  50  60  20
MCO  94  77  95  76 /  60  50  60  10
MLB  91  77  90  76 /  40  20  40  10
VRB  92  76  92  75 /  20  10  30  10
LEE  93  78  94  78 /  70  60  70  20
SFB  94  77  95  76 /  70  50  60  20
ORL  95  78  95  77 /  60  50  60  20
FPR  91  75  92  75 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly